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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
Did anyone actually read the accompanying text with the PIOMAS Sea Ice Volume anomaly chart presented several time and currently showing a shortfall of about 11,000 cubic kilometers? Here it is:
----------------------------------------Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly Sea Ice Volume is calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) developed at APL/PSC by Dr. J. Zhang and collaborators. Anomalies for each day are calculated relative to the average over the 1979 -2009 period for that day to remove the annual cycle. The model mean seasonal cycle of sea ice volume ranges from 28,600 km^3 in April to 14,400 km^3 in September. The blue line represents the trend calculated from January 1 1979 to the most recent date indicated on the figure. Total Arctic Ice Volume for March 2010 is 20,300 km^3, the lowest over the 1979-2010 period and 38% below the 1979 maximum. PIOMAS calculates that the monthly average Arctic Sea Ice Volume for May 2010 was 19,000 km^3, the lowest May volume over the 1979-2010 period, 42% below the 1979 maximum and 32% below the 1979-2009 May average. September Ice Volume was lowest in 2009 at 5,800 km^3 or 67% below its 1979 maximum. Shaded areas represent one and two standard deviations of the anomaly from the trend. Updates will be generated at approximately two-weekly intervals. ![]() So what we will be watching when September 13 arrives is how much that volume will be... less or more than 5,800 km square... if it's 5,810 a recovery will be claimed, but at least a stabilization... betting 10 Quatloos. My calculator and the Point Resolute guy have concluded that we're currently 2 months ahead, in melt over recent years. [snippet] which adds to the over all Arctic sea ice melt incredibly to an all time record. The extent anomaly for Arctic sea ice is equal to the anomaly of 2008 at its summer end. Which is 2 months ahead of time in 2010, making 2010 the coming all time most melted Arctic Ocean ice ever. Hudson Bay had a very warm winter, it took a while, but the thinner ice from winter past didn't resist the spring heat as much as previous years. wd June 26, 2010 For anyone doing a year on year comparison, the Hudson Bay freeze up last winter was as late as 1998, and this year we only had a modest El Nino that is crash landing into a seeming La Nina presently... hurricane season will be knocking harder on the North American doors... lets hope loads of Sahara dust will be blowing into the higher troposhere over the North equatorial Atlantic... it works as a moderator [yes, another variable we know about]
WCG
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
Let's see, if the 2009 minimum Sea Ice was 5,300,000 km square [eyeballed JAXA data], then on average that remaining ice was 1.1 meters thick. As we all know bumping, compressing, shaking, rocking and rolling [waveaction, wind and the undertoad], will have it left multi-meters thick in places and elsewhere not thick enough to go skating with DA [a daredevil enterprise I think]. Look careful in that webcam image [the big one]... in the far one can see that stacking over the near full length of the horizon. A few weeks ago such a crack/stag was visible almost straight through the sites instrument location. NOAA could have lost their instrumentation very early.
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WCG
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
Newspapers Retract 'Climategate' Claims, but Damage Still Done:
http://www.newsweek.com/blogs/the-gaggle/2010...ut-damage-still-done.html But not only did British investigators clear the East Anglia scientist at the center of it all, Phil Jones, of scientific impropriety and dishonesty in April, an investigation at Penn State cleared PSU climatologist Michael Mann of “falsifying or suppressing data, intending to delete or conceal e-mails and information, and misusing privileged or confidential information” in February. In perhaps the biggest backpedaling, The Sunday Times of London, which led the media pack in charging that IPCC reports were full of egregious (and probably intentional) errors, retracted its central claim—namely, that the IPCC statement that up to 40 percent of the Amazonian rainforest could be vulnerable to climate change was “unsubstantiated.” The Times also admitted that it had totally twisted the remarks of one forest expert to make it sound as if he agreed that the IPCC had screwed up, when he said no such thing. |
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
That was Amazongate aka Leakegate and a guy called Jonathan Leake or something who's got a longer history. In this case, somehow Leake read out over the phone the pre-print article to the scientist who approved the text, except when it hours later went to press it was so badly rewritten, one can only interpret it as mal-intent... read out one version and print a different one. Yes, it Aint True, of course!
----------------------------------------http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/06/leakegate-a-retraction/
WCG
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
Saw 2 terms new to me today:
----------------------------------------1. The stupid, it hurts 2. Steve Goddard gives denialists a bad name. Here's one that covers point 1: http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Greenhouse_Effect_Poppycock.pdf
WCG
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
DA, I'm disappointed in your lack of perseverance... no continuity, no science corroborated input. Mind if you collate a list of JAXA dates where SIE dropped below 9 million KM square? Today in first pass the number is:
----------------------------------------8,982,813 It Ain't True of course, since it's an inconvenient truth. PS: Message from the North Sea coast: The beaches are loaded to the brim, with humans seeking to ameliorate sweaty feet. No rain for a while which the farming community is not happy with... maybe move their croplands further north, where it seems the permafrosted lands are thawing [quicker], absent early anomalous snow cover. Then of course the soils might not be so conducive to potatoes growing [your staple food component], so the agriculturalists need to move the top layer too. Happy Days are here again... oh wait, there's a storm heading for that massive oil spill up the US coast destroying thousands of livelihoods and the mental and physical welfare of tens of thousands... sadly for them it's IMBY. It almost always happens to the least well off and that I've never ever understood.
WCG
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David Autumns
Ace Cruncher UK Joined: Nov 16, 2004 Post Count: 11062 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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It's been seen in the wild
----------------------------------------http://www.tcmagazine.com/tcm/news/hardware/2...-1055t-95w-tdp-sale-japan ![]() |
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
NOT for pre happy dreams reading:
----------------------------------------David Greenwood, whose explanation of paleoclimate I linked to earlier, has a new article published in Geology, which can be read for free. Significantly warmer Arctic surface temperatures during the Pliocene indicated by multiple independent proxies Ballantyne et al. http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/38/7/603.abstract He says this of it: âThe research reports on our reconstruction of climate for Ellesmere Island in the Canadian high Arctic where we show that temperatures 4 to 5 million years ago were ~19C higher than today, at a time when atmospheric CO2 levels were very close to those today⦠[...] The implication of our research is that we may already have passed a tipping point for major increases in Arctic temperatures due to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2.â Here are some recent papers coming up with similar findings in terms of temperature and CO2 levels. Palaeoclimate: Global warmth with little extra CO2. Birgit Schneider & Ralph Schneider (2010). (3 â 4C once thought to be associated with CO2 at 500 â 600 ppmv therein put at 385 ppmv) Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years. Tripati et al (December 2009) Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data. Lunt et al (December 2009) Hereâs a chart High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations. Pagani et al (December 2009) Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100. Breecker et al (October 2009) JAXA data based, June 2009 ended up 630,000 km square average less sea ice extent than 2009 and lowest on modern month 6 record. ![]() PIOMAS, on their seeming 15 day update cycle, will probably post their Sea Ice Volume chart refresh sometime in the next 7 days. Eventually, the negative anomaly could get less, since the 2009 year ended in 5,800 km cubic for September... that what was left... the June anomaly is already 11,000 km^3 negative. The building La Nina will cause the Oceans to suck up more heat in the coming seasons to put the breaks on for a little... depends on whether her big blue drive up north will not continue. We'll keep you posted of any hair thin recovery pointers.
WCG
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retsof
Former Community Advisor USA Joined: Jul 31, 2005 Post Count: 6824 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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As I have been saying since March 2007 (Thanks MD)..... Go outside and you will find that it's a perfectly normal day for this time of the year. You really should get out more. There is a perfectly normal hurricane outside, and it is raining.
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David Autumns
Ace Cruncher UK Joined: Nov 16, 2004 Post Count: 11062 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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Perfectly normal Hurricane crossing the Gulf of Mexico today
----------------------------------------Hurricane Alex the first of the year http://travelwithkids.about.com/od/caribbeanf...ns/qt/hurricane_seaso.htm ![]() |
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