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At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

Hello,

The "Update" thread has grown pretty large now. Are there any updates from the scientists?
[Oct 15, 2006 2:35:24 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
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Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

Hi tangra,
No updates. Looking at Statistics - By Projects - FAAH I see:
10/15/2006 00:06:02 --- Results Returned 27,575,054

Compare this with:
40% 18 August 2006 ---- Results Returned 22,529,595
43% 01 September 2006 Results Returned 23,642,682
???? 06 October 2006 --- Results Returned 26,977,053

It looks as though we have added about 10.5% to the 43% but we need a longer baseline than just 2 weeks to see how many results amount to 1%. The next time they update the percentage on the FAAH website http://fightaidsathome.scripps.edu/ we need the first person who spots it to record the FAAH Project Results Returned. For a long time, we were not recording these figures. Live and learn!

Lawrence
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Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

Hi lawrencehardin,

Thanks for the update. Let's keep on the lookout for the percentage change.
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Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

so best rough guess is say. 560,000 results per 1% ???
not sure wot results mean ie total results? total valid results? individual results? quorum of 3 valid results? ( that would be my guess but i could be wrong) keep up the good work , and yeah , lets monitor progress - is good to know how far along things are, good for motivation and information etc...
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Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

if its results per % would you use this equation?
[(01 September 2006 Results Returned) - (18 August 2006 Results Returned)]/3 = results per 1%

(23,642,682 - 22,529,595) / 3 = 371,029 results per 1%

retep57 how did you come up with 560,000 results per 1%?
did you do something with the numbers in here?

ChemBridge (500,000) vs. Wild Type HIV Protease (1)
Top Hits from Stage 1 vs. Mutant HIV Protease Panel (270)
NCI Diversity Set (1,900) vs. Monomeric HIV Protease (20)

I think I want to take statistics next semester. I wonder if that'll help me figure this out.
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Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

40% 18 August 2006 ---- Results Returned 22,529,595

22,529,595 / 40 = 563,239

43% 01 September 2006 Results Returned 23,642,682

likewise 23,642,682 / 43 = 549,829

extrapolating 563,239 x 100 = 56,323,900

of course many assumptions here.. i am still not sure if results returned = raw numbers or validated results divided by quorum of 3 for "final" result.

loads of guesswork here but the trend is prob reliable, say 6 ish % per month ? cheers. same maths by poster above suggested that about 300,000 ish = 1% , i guess depends when the % marks get posted at faah site, so would have to tally numbers at that time. So i will hazard a wild guess and assume that we are now just over 50% and that there is about 8 months of work to go, depending on mix of other work units on wcg and increase in users/ computers etc. So i am putting "pretend" money on a june 2007 finish, hey same month my sister in law baby due..

prob earlier if more crunching happens, users get more and or faster computers etc etc.. my optimistic guess is for April finish but monopoly money says june 2007 , ha any takers? money eyes
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Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

Hello retep57,
40% 18 August 2006 ---- Results Returned 22,529,595

22,529,595 / 40 = 563,239


There are some subtle errors in that reasoning. First, that includes Stage 1. Secondly, we have changed the quorum rules by stopping sending out extra copies for greater validation speed. I think that we have upgraded our storage space on the server so knreed no longer worries about running out of space while retaining returned unvalidated results. So we have to start our figuring with the July data. Unfortunately, I did not record it. It took a while for the dime to finally drop.

Lawrence
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Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

From the time the 43% completion point was posted I divided the time that had elasped processing Phase 2 and came up with 25,000 years of processing time required to complete 100% of Phase 2. Right now we are at 17,025 years which places us at about 68%. This assumes that future efforts in processing data is the same as the data already processed, that is, future workunits require similar processing time as past ones. This may not be the case knowing that each tested molecule is different from the others. Also, the change in the quorum requirements, changes for 100% to 60% in default CPU utilization and the constant addition of new users will alter my estimate.

Perhaps somebody will develop a good calculus equation showing how processing times per day change as the number of computers are added to the Grid.
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biggrin Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

From the time the 43% completion point was posted I divided the time that had elasped processing Phase 2 and came up with 25,000 years of processing time required to complete 100% of Phase 2. Right now we are at 17,025 years which places us at about 68%. This assumes...

COOL even better, yay , revised eta already. thanx for comment biggrin
so any revised "bets", dec? jan? feb? hmm at this rate they will have to get some other projects up ( malaria) etc so we dont run out of work LOL.
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Re: At 43% for a few months now. Any updates?

*checks schedule*

Oh, we're going to be busy all right. :-D
[Oct 16, 2006 2:17:11 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
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