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KLiK
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - September 25, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

Got the numbers in work pause...so it's around beginning of May 2017


It's time for a gpu client :-P

actually, NO!

why?
beginning of May, 2017 is 7 months & some days away...so we're talking about 220 days?!
development of engine for GPU in CUDA or OpenGL takes 3-6 months...& then you need to re-check it on BETA...
so NO, it's not going to happen on MCM...
wink
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non-profit org. Play4Life in Zagreb, Croatia
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[VENETO] boboviz
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - September 25, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

Got the numbers in work pause...so it's around beginning of May 2017


It's time for a gpu client :-P

actually, NO!


Quiet, dude
I'm just kidding
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Dayle Diamond
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - September 25, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

No need to kid. As long as useful simulations can be added past this new batch, let's prepare for more simulations by investing in a GPU client.
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KLiK
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - September 25, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

No need to kid. As long as useful simulations can be added past this new batch, let's prepare for more simulations by investing in a GPU client.

Again, not sure if it's going to happen on ending MCM research...

But there's a OET & OZ which use same engine which can be ported to GPUs...so why not asking there?! :/
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[VENETO] boboviz
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - September 25, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

No need to kid. As long as useful simulations can be added past this new batch, let's prepare for more simulations by investing in a GPU client.


Meantime, i continue to crunch with my cpu.... biggrin
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - October 2, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

The following figures are based on a total number of work units of 530,000,000 from cubes (project scientist) with the addition of Seippel (WCG tech).
Hello all, We've received an update on the estimate batch count from the researchers that has added another 9000 batches making the new estimate 26,500 batches. However, this is only an estimate (a lot can change in the almost one year it will take to complete these new batches). Also, the progress bar on the webpage has been updated accordingly. Thanks, Seippel
Last 30 day average results:511,191
Estimated date of batch 26500 using 30 day average: October 5, 2016
Percent Complete:99.57821%
The average length of a WU is currently running about 4.19 hours, slightly longer than last week, and still trending steady around the 4 hour mark. The trend line for the past few weeks has been for the workunits to be ever so slightly shorter on average and this week they were slightly longer again.
Still have not seen any of the batches from 122278 to 122402. The ovarian units started with 122403 as the lowest number.My latest batch number was 126447 which would give about 175 batches for the week. Therefore, by this measure the project is about 99.33% complete. (Take this number with a large grain of salt, but it is no longer the same number as displayed on the research page!!!???).
We are still at about .15 more months (approx. 4 days)of additional crunching at the current recent run rate until we hit the work unit 26500. The projected completion date has held steady all week for the previous three weeks. Production decreased a bit this past week going from about 3.522 million WU's to 3.517 million WU's completed. During this past week the time devoted to MCM1 was just under an average of 234 years per day, compared to 233 years per day the previous week. Getting back to about 3.5 million work units or more per week will move that completion date closer. Remember, the situation can change at any time and these are only estimates.
Perhaps one of the techs will be kind enough to chime in with the estimated number of new batches of work. Otherwise, next week I will go into a much more speculative projection of the end of project just based on the amount of work done, the percentage listed on the research page and current pace of units being completed.I wish I could do better, but the lack of information does provide a bit of hurdle. Next week I will try to revise chart two to reflect the new reality.


Cheers
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Sgt. Joe
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sgt.Joe at Oct 4, 2016 2:39:45 AM]
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adriverhoef
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - October 2, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

Production decreased a bit this past week going from about 3.522 million WU's to 3.517 million WU's completed. (...) Getting back to about 3.5 million work units or more per week will move that completion date closer.

Also, a decreasing rate doesn't always mean that a completion date will move more closer. wink
Nevertheless appreciate reading your statistics, Sgt.Joe. smile
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by adriverhoef at Oct 4, 2016 11:52:43 AM]
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - October 2, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

Production decreased a bit this past week going from about 3.522 million WU's to 3.517 million WU's completed. (...) Getting back to about 3.5 million work units or more per week will move that completion date closer.

Also, a decreasing rate doesn't always mean that a completion date will move more closer. wink
Nevertheless appreciate reading your statistics, Sgt.Joe. smile

You are correct, a decreasing rate does not always mean the completion date will move closer. The two statements need to be evaluated separately. The rate is merely a reflection of how many units were processed over a given period of time. The static number, 3.5 million is the threshold number which is needed per week to advance (move closer) the estimated completion date of the project based on its recent estimated end date as determined by the 30 day running average of daily completions. Hope this helps.
Cheers
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Sgt. Joe
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SekeRob
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - October 2, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

Sgt.Joe, since you are capturing batches per week, you might be interested in this chart layout done which was developed round when projecting the completion of Exp.41 for FAAH(1). visualizes the work throughput undulations pretty well. Waving copyright for you, ;)

Can send you a copy of a cleaned book containing just the tab with that chart in it (Office 2013, possibly Office 2010... don't recollect)... PM via Berkeley forums and I'll Dropbox a zipped personal copy for your use.


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[Edit 1 times, last edit by SekeRob* at Oct 4, 2016 1:38:49 PM]
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Re: MCM Progress Reports - October 2, 2016 23:59 UTC Update

I like it!!! I personally think batches per unit of time is the most accurate predictor of the end of the KNOWN work. As more more work is KNOWN, the dates moves. Downside, major dependence on information from the techs/scientists.... nuff said.
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