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Category: Support Forum: Suggestions / Feedback Thread: [Solved] WCGrid Cost-Benefit Analysis |
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Thread Status: Active Total posts in this thread: 133
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wcgridmember
Advanced Cruncher Joined: Mar 30, 2005 Post Count: 110 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
@KerSamson
----------------------------------------I'm genuinely sorry you feel that way. I honestly do NOT think WCGrid is useless without further analysis. My point is that we should *make* this analysis since this analysis could either show us we should keep crunching or maybe we should use the money from the electricity in another project(s). There's also the possibility of no clear conclusion - fair enough. Then, I would rest my case and you wouldn't see me trying to argue in these concerns anytime soon. Anyone could choose to crunch or not and I wouldn't criticize anyone for doing it. I'd be a very enthusiastic cruncher if we estimated the costs and found out the project has costs that most likely are being put to good use. I think you've missed my last few posts, because I've specifically focused on getting the costs estimated, not on a cost-benefit analysis in the common sense. And from that, even if it's possible that we do not get a clear conclusion, a conclusion might be possible if the marginal costs are much greater or much lower than the universe that could potentially benefit from the research earlier (see my post regarding "marginal benefits" and "marginal costs"). @nickoli As I've repeated before, in my last posts I've explained the focus on getting costs estimated rather than the regular cost-benefit analysis. Spare computing time exists, but it has costs. We could take the most cautious estimates by assuming that all computers on the grid would be on if they weren't running WCGrid. Forget machine wear, I'm assuming it is negligible in monetary terms. Forget noise, too. Assume everybody that is bothered by it limits the CPU in a way that mitigates this issue. If we found out that the costs (the price you pay a year in electricity to run WCGrid on that tablet) could very most likely be put to better use in another project (an existing one), would you rather not be part of that project instead? NOTE: I'm talking about electricity here, but CO2 emissions should be estimated too (I have no idea what is the greatest cost - the direct cost of electricity, or the indirect cost of CO2 emissions from using that electricity - though I bet on the first). [Edit 6 times, last edit by wcgridmember at Oct 3, 2019 9:47:17 PM] |
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wcgridmember
Advanced Cruncher Joined: Mar 30, 2005 Post Count: 110 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
If it was not clear yet, I'm talking about being the most cautions in the estimation of the costs (under-evaluating if in doubt), and being the most bold (over-evaluating if in doubt) the marginal benefits of running WCGrid. I'd be happy if the costs were estimated and put against all best-scenario outcomes from the research. Say, complete cure for cancer (just to mention one of the ultimate goals of one of the sub-projects) in the next couple of years.
----------------------------------------[Edit 1 times, last edit by wcgridmember at Oct 3, 2019 9:52:56 PM] |
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hchc
Veteran Cruncher USA Joined: Aug 15, 2006 Post Count: 746 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
I lose brain cells every time I visit this bloody thread. I wish this forum software wasn't so obsolete (and also a security risk, I would imagine) so we have both PM functionality and ignore list functionality.
----------------------------------------WCG through IBM provides through its goodwill initiative the infrastructure to house the BOINC server platform and a small but talented team of employees to make it available to academic and organizational researchers to conduct their in silico research simulations. The value of each project contributes to the larger body of science, and the sooner the research is conducted, the sooner that research that builds on that research can begin. We would be losing greatly by postponing things just to wait for _____ (insert x). Now whether the in silico research involves docking chemical compounds (i.e. drugs) to a protein target, protein folding and prediction, to weather simulation to coming up with better water filters or photovoltaic cell materials, the analysis of whether to participate or not is in the subjective eye of the volunteer. The value to humanity at large is largely hindsight. When Ed Morley and Albert Michelson conducted their famous experiment, did they know at the time it would lead to the first Nobel Prize won by an American? Did they know their research would be built upon by Albert Einstein? Though their experiment disproved something instead of proved, it was still valuable. Not unlike how Edison went through thousands of failed filament and light bulb designs: each failure eventually led to success, and you better believe that materials were "wasted" in that pursuit. Similarly, we can throw the entire ZINC database at a disease target, and even if only a few of those compounds lead to real world drug leads, the computing effort still provides value to researchers in helping them save literal years of human effort and helps them narrow down the search for drug compounds that show a good hit in actual lab testing and eventually in animal and then human testing. These things take decades, but you have to start somewhere. As stated in my first post, this thread is sophistry, since it starts with a foregone conclusion (muh carbon emissions!) and then works backwards to demonize a volunteer project. The OP not only doesn't understand how basic scientific research works but keeps beating the dead horse of the original premise that it's even possible to calculate an exact ratio of if WCG's power consumption is worth it. Look. Without the petaflops we volunteers give them, most of these projects wouldn't exist. Or if they did manage to get NIH funding and other grants through their home country, they would still be consuming similar levels of electricity by designing their own BOINC computing clusters in house. Look on YouTube at the University of Nottingham (e.g. the "Computerphile" channel on YouTube) and look at their datacenter tour. They have their own private grids used for academic projects. The Help Stop TB team -- I imagine -- would have access to that cluster on a first come, first serve basis. And yes, that datacenter uses electricity 24/7. *gasp!* Our Consumer Off The Shelf (COTS) or home built computers, servers, and mobile devices also use electricity. *gasp* It's potato, po-tah-toe. Either way, the computational research needs to get done. If you personally don't want to volunteer your electric bill or think that other projects provide more value to you and your interests, then it's a free country/world! And don't let the door hit you.
[Edit 1 times, last edit by hchc at Oct 4, 2019 5:18:33 AM] |
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
AMEN!!
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nickoli
Senior Cruncher USA Joined: Nov 28, 2005 Post Count: 167 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
I lose brain cells every time I visit this bloody thread. I wish this forum software wasn't so obsolete (and also a security risk, I would imagine) so we have both PM functionality and ignore list functionality. WCG through IBM provides through its goodwill initiative the infrastructure to house the BOINC server platform and a small but talented team of employees to make it available to academic and organizational researchers to conduct their in silico research simulations. The value of each project contributes to the larger body of science, and the sooner the research is conducted, the sooner that research that builds on that research can begin. We would be losing greatly by postponing things just to wait for _____ (insert x). Now whether the in silico research involves docking chemical compounds (i.e. drugs) to a protein target, protein folding and prediction, to weather simulation to coming up with better water filters or photovoltaic cell materials, the analysis of whether to participate or not is in the subjective eye of the volunteer. The value to humanity at large is largely hindsight. When Ed Morley and Albert Michelson conducted their famous experiment, did they know at the time it would lead to the first Nobel Prize won by an American? Did they know their research would be built upon by Albert Einstein? Though their experiment disproved something instead of proved, it was still valuable. Not unlike how Edison went through thousands of failed filament and light bulb designs: each failure eventually led to success, and you better believe that materials were "wasted" in that pursuit. Similarly, we can throw the entire ZINC database at a disease target, and even if only a few of those compounds lead to real world drug leads, the computing effort still provides value to researchers in helping them save literal years of human effort and helps them narrow down the search for drug compounds that show a good hit in actual lab testing and eventually in animal and then human testing. These things take decades, but you have to start somewhere. As stated in my first post, this thread is sophistry, since it starts with a foregone conclusion (muh carbon emissions!) and then works backwards to demonize a volunteer project. The OP not only doesn't understand how basic scientific research works but keeps beating the dead horse of the original premise that it's even possible to calculate an exact ratio of if WCG's power consumption is worth it. Look. Without the petaflops we volunteers give them, most of these projects wouldn't exist. Or if they did manage to get NIH funding and other grants through their home country, they would still be consuming similar levels of electricity by designing their own BOINC computing clusters in house. Look on YouTube at the University of Nottingham (e.g. the "Computerphile" channel on YouTube) and look at their datacenter tour. They have their own private grids used for academic projects. The Help Stop TB team -- I imagine -- would have access to that cluster on a first come, first serve basis. And yes, that datacenter uses electricity 24/7. *gasp!* Our Consumer Off The Shelf (COTS) or home built computers, servers, and mobile devices also use electricity. *gasp* It's potato, po-tah-toe. Either way, the computational research needs to get done. If you personally don't want to volunteer your electric bill or think that other projects provide more value to you and your interests, then it's a free country/world! And don't let the door hit you. +1 |
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wcgridmember
Advanced Cruncher Joined: Mar 30, 2005 Post Count: 110 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
«These things take decades»
----------------------------------------If they take decades and you think it's worth it, therefore you must agree it is also worth it if it got its ultimate solutions (what I called the best-case scenarios) in only two years (for certain!) instead of decades, no? It should be relatively easy to prove that worthiness by estimating the costs (and under-evaluating them where lacking info could lead us to higher or lower costs estimations) and compare them with getting those hypothetical quick solutions (the very minimum worthiness requirement measurement I can think of). «foregone conclusion» I don't have a foregone conclusion. I have a foregone premise which is that we are currently living in *ignorance* if we don't care to estimate the global costs of crunching. «works backwards to demonize a volunteer project» I'm not working backwards, I'm working forward against (or demonize, if you prefer that word) *ignorance*. «exact ratio of if WCG's power consumption is worth it» Please tell me where I've said that. (About that idea that if we don't crunch, someone will:) If we all don't care about the costs, many will crunch. It's possible they are doing a good think, but without estimation of the costs, no one can deny that it's possible (not certain) that they might do much better elsewhere. If we cared, we would at the very least have a rough idea of those costs (or that they are above a certain minimum number), and at most conclude something useful out of it. If we cared, *maybe* we could conclude that resources are being put to good use in some projects, while in other cases those resources should be used in other non-crunching projects instead. It's all about efficiency. «Either way, the computational research needs to get done.» Actually it doesn't. The developers of WCGrid, the crunchers and people that might benefit from the research most likely want it to be done; this would be a better phrasing. If it needed to be done as a principle, I wouldn't question the project. I question it, because, unlike most charity organizations that estimate costs and make them available to public scrutiny (where there is transparency), costs that WCGrid makes people incur in globally are not available to public scrutiny (where there is lack of transparency). Science is not good for its own sake, science is good in so much as it serves society. If a project that pursues science is costing society more than it serves it, it is a bad project (I'm not saying it's the case, I'm saying it could be the case). [Edit 1 times, last edit by wcgridmember at Oct 5, 2019 8:48:05 AM] |
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nickoli
Senior Cruncher USA Joined: Nov 28, 2005 Post Count: 167 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
«These things take decades» If they take decades and you think it's worth it, therefore you must agree it is also worth it if it got its ultimate solutions (what I called the best-case scenarios)... The quintessential beauty and perhaps ultimate frustration of science is that there are no ultimate solutions, only provisional knowledges. |
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wcgridmember
Advanced Cruncher Joined: Mar 30, 2005 Post Count: 110 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
@nickoli
----------------------------------------You probably misunderstood my point. My point is: assume (as an hypothetical exercise) we got to the cure of cancer not in decades, but in only the next two years (all the more reason for the appealing-ness and worthiness of WCGrid) if we compared in that scenario 1. the benefits (assuming they go to infinity, we should use a common actualization rate) with 2. the costs (with a conservative estimation) and found out that 1. > 2. we could attest at least to a very minimum degree/measure of the worthiness of WCGrid. UPDATE: In other words, if costs are worth the effort in the current situation (where some of you say solutions might require decades), then costs are EVEN more worth the effort if we got to the cure of cancer in 2 years. If WCGrid passes the cost-benefit analysis with this two-year hypothesis, then it passes a very low bar of worthiness (because the longer we go from 2 years onwards the benefits are delayed/decrease and the costs go up/increase). I'm asking that you consider that we try to prove at least this very, very low bar. [Edit 1 times, last edit by wcgridmember at Oct 6, 2019 12:16:29 AM] |
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KerSamson
Master Cruncher Switzerland Joined: Jan 29, 2007 Post Count: 1671 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
@wcgridmember
----------------------------------------I think, the best positive conclusion you could expect is: "Human disappearing from Mother Earth is the most sustainable approach for the future". Everything human does is causing trouble and disturbing the natural balance (if any). It is called entropy! In silico research, in vitro research, in vivo research can always be questionable. Are they worth to be done? Since I do not consider to commit suicide in a close future, I think that my limited contribution to WCG sciences is worth it. Yves |
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jkpearman
Cruncher Joined: Apr 27, 2015 Post Count: 2 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
I think recipients of BOINC donations should stop propagating the fallacy that this work is from "spare computer time." They have the data so prove it. The MIP project squanders a lot of electricity. It should be halted until it's fixed. At the risk of derailing this discussion, would someone be able to explain the issues with the MIP project, or link to one? Thanks! |
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