Index | Recent Threads | Unanswered Threads | Who's Active | Guidelines | Search |
World Community Grid Forums
Category: Support Forum: Suggestions / Feedback Thread: [Solved] WCGrid Cost-Benefit Analysis |
No member browsing this thread |
Thread Status: Active Total posts in this thread: 133
|
Author |
|
KerSamson
Master Cruncher Switzerland Joined: Jan 29, 2007 Post Count: 1671 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
Correct.
----------------------------------------To make the results available for the public domain is a mandatory requirement for being supported by WCG. |
||
|
wcgridmember
Advanced Cruncher Joined: Mar 30, 2005 Post Count: 110 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
Regarding:
----------------------------------------«I do not believe that a cost-benefit analysis makes sense in this context. It is not plausible to quantify or estimate the potential future socio-scientific benefits from the projects we work on. The data generated from our simulations here is stored and has the potential to be used long after the current research teams who manage these projects have moved on.» I believe you are missing a point: let's simplify and take for granted that the results will never be lost. The results will most likely provide huge benefits, that's for sure. Let's now consider two alternative realities: 1. We crunch now 2. We crunch later (let's say, in a couple of decades or otherwise when the climate emergency is better handled) In both cases we will most likely have huge long-term benefits. To evaluate what is the best decision, you must estimate the marginal benefits and costs of one decision versus the other. The decision to crunch now versus later results not in those most likely huge benefits of crunching per se, but in the difference between the benefits of crunching now versus later. Let's call this difference: "marginal benefits". Then, we also have the "marginal costs" (the difference between the costs of running today vs later). Everyone that is crunching WCGrid today, if acting rationally, must be thinking that the marginal benefits are greater than the marginal costs. The marginal benefits can be more or less significant, but the same goes to the marginal costs: the money we use for electricity today (which could be used for a number of good things, including fighting Climate Change or other types of injustices), as well as the pollution we create now while running WCGrid - on top our Climate Crisis - has a direct negative impact on all of us. While there could be cascading marginal benefits, there are *for sure* cascading marginal costs. To me, it is nowhere near clear that the marginal benefits are greater than the marginal costs. As I've suggested earlier, if it is difficult to estimate the long-term marginal benefits of crunching now vs later, it is much easier to estimate the short-medium term marginal costs of crunching now. If we estimated these costs, maybe we could eventually be able to reach conclusions such as: 1. Crunching WCGrid costs X lives (or to be less dramatic, using our efforts in another program - the very best alternative program(s) - saves X lives); knowing that X is <far lower> than the number of the estimated people that could benefit from - say - cancer treatment or cure (or whatever the target of each WCGrid project) earlier, we can say with a great amount of confidence that we <are in a good track if we keep crunching on WCGrid>. OR 2. Crunching WCGrid costs Y lives (or to be less dramatic, using our efforts in another program - the very best alternative program(s) - saves Y lives); knowing that Y is <far greater> than the number of the estimated people that could benefit from - say - cancer treatment or cure (or whatever the target of each WCGrid project) earlier, we can say with a reasonable amount of confidence that we should <use our efforts elsewhere, at least until the conditions change>. [Edit 6 times, last edit by wcgridmember at Sep 22, 2019 7:34:27 PM] |
||
|
nickoli
Senior Cruncher USA Joined: Nov 28, 2005 Post Count: 167 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
Thanks for the information. At what point must the data produced from the project be made open access?
---------------------------------------- |
||
|
nickoli
Senior Cruncher USA Joined: Nov 28, 2005 Post Count: 167 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
Regarding: «I do not believe that a cost-benefit analysis makes sense in this context. It is not plausible to quantify or estimate the potential future socio-scientific benefits from the projects we work on. The data generated from our simulations here is stored and has the potential to be used long after the current research teams who manage these projects have moved on.» I believe you are missing a point: let's simplify and take for granted that the results will never be lost. The results will most likely provide huge benefits, that's for sure. Let's now consider two alternative realities: 1. We crunch now 2. We crunch later (let's say, in a couple of decades or otherwise when the climate emergency is better handled) In both cases we will most likely have huge long-term benefits. To evaluate what is the best decision, you must estimate the marginal benefits and costs of one decision versus the other. The decision to crunch now versus later results not in those most likely huge benefits of crunching per se, but in the difference between the benefits of crunching now versus later. Let's call this difference: "marginal benefits". Then, we also have the "marginal costs" (the difference between the costs of running today vs later). Everyone that is crunching WCGrid today, if acting rationally, must be thinking that the marginal benefits are greater than the marginal costs. The marginal benefits can be more or less significant, but the same goes to the marginal costs: the money we use for electricity today (which could be used for a number of good things, including fighting Climate Change or other types of injustices), as well as the pollution we create now while running WCGrid - on top our Climate Crisis - has a direct negative impact on all of us. While there could be cascading marginal benefits, there are *for sure* cascading marginal costs. To me, it is nowhere near clear that the marginal benefits are greater than the marginal costs. As I've suggested earlier, if it is difficult to estimate the long-term marginal benefits of crunching now vs later, it is much easier to estimate the short-medium term marginal costs of crunching now. If we estimated these costs, maybe we could eventually be able to reach conclusions such as: 1. Crunching WCGrid costs X lives (or to be less dramatic, using our efforts in another program - the very best alternative program(s) - saves X lives); knowing that X is <far lower> than the number of the estimated people that could benefit from - say - cancer treatment or cure (or whatever the target of each WCGrid project) earlier, we can say with a great amount of confidence that we <are in a good track if we keep crunching on WCGrid>. OR 2. Crunching WCGrid costs Y lives (or to be less dramatic, using our efforts in another program - the very best alternative program(s) - saves Y lives); knowing that Y is <far greater> than the number of the estimated people that could benefit from - say - cancer treatment or cure (or whatever the target of each WCGrid project) earlier, we can say with a reasonable amount of confidence that we should <use our efforts elsewhere, at least until the conditions change>. As I wrote before, I do not believe that a cost-benefit analysis is appropriate nor practicable. It is not possible to quantify the marginal benefits because of a great degree of uncertainty in what will be produced. As far as people acting "rationally", you are assuming that people are conducting some complicated cost-benefit analysis when, 1) behavioral economics would suggest that people do not typically behave that way and 2) how would you ever quantify the pleasure people derive from being a part of a community of crunchers/the joy from participating in something bigger than themselves (i.e. the sociality aspect), or from WCG participation being an educational device? I think a more constructive use of time would be to stop eating meat instead of worrying about how many lives are lost due to WCG's infinitesimally small (if even empirically possible to consider) contribution to global warming. Again, it is not possible to quantify/estimate how many lives will be "saved" from the research we conduct here, because scientific investigation is rarely so cut-and-dry, action-impact, intervention-amelioration oriented. At least for me, this is about contributing to the corpus of scientific knowledge in a way that is dynamic: a handful of simulation results from my computer join other results who can be interpreted later and perhaps yield new simulations that, perhaps ad infinitum, eventually lead to "lives saved". Therefore, a cost-benefit analysis is simply not practical. |
||
|
wcgridmember
Advanced Cruncher Joined: Mar 30, 2005 Post Count: 110 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
You seem to miss my point again: I've basically said: "Let's not focus on estimating the marginal benefits, let's focus on estimating the marginal costs". No, I'm not assuming people are conducting some complicated cost-benefit analysis. I'm saying that people that crunch think this is a project worthwhile. I'm saying that it might not be worthwhile. It might be, but it also might not be. If we dared estimate the costs, we might *maybe* answer that question more or less easily with conclusions such as the ones I proposed. There is a third type of conclusion I've not mentioned earlier that could prove to be equally helpful in this context:
----------------------------------------Alas! WCGrid is overall worthwhile! [X is <far lower> than the number of the estimated people that could benefit from - say - cancer treatment or cure (or whatever the target of each WCGrid project) earlier], but if your computer specs are bellow Z, you should not crunch WCGrid on that computer, because with those specs your net contribution to humanity is most likely negative. 2. With these questions I'm posing all WCGrid members here, I'm hoping every WCGrid cruncher thinks about the displeasure of contributing to a project that does not want to estimate its costs. Might potentially make some good, true, but does not care about what bad it does. This is the current state of affairs of WCGrid. So much lack of transparency for an "educational device" that *maybe* would do the world better if it was discontinued. I'm stressing here *maybe*, because I'm not saying WCGrid is bad overall, it is clearly bad in terms of the not-caring-ness about the costs, true, but currently we don't know if it's bad or good and we're not even trying to figure out. «I think a more constructive use of time would be to stop eating meat instead of worrying about how many lives are lost due to WCG's infinitesimally small (if even empirically possible to consider) contribution to global warming.» What is your evidence for saying that WCG's costs are negligible? And please don't focus just on the global warming issue due to CO2 emissions, because there are also the financial costs from spending on electricity that could *for sure* do good elsewhere. «Again, it is not possible to quantify/estimate how many lives will be "saved" from the research we conduct here, because scientific investigation is rarely so cut-and-dry, action-impact, intervention-amelioration oriented. At least for me, this is about contributing to the corpus of scientific knowledge in a way that is dynamic: a handful of simulation results from my computer join other results who can be interpreted later and perhaps yield new simulations that, perhaps ad infinitum, eventually lead to "lives saved". Therefore, a cost-benefit analysis is simply not practical.» Again, let's try to estimate the marginal costs and not the marginal benefits!!! [Edit 1 times, last edit by wcgridmember at Sep 23, 2019 8:13:09 PM] |
||
|
Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
wcgridmember, I agree with you, that the environmental impact and cost of WCG should be minimized. To do that, it must also be estimated. What I do not agree with, is that the WCG staff should be blamed for not doing this. WCG is a platform, were everyone can participate with any hardware one likes. WCG has no control over this. So every single contributor is responsible to crunch with a minimal environmental and cost impact. And you know? There are repeated disussions about exactly this topic on this forum and elsewhere. Most serious participants I know really care about crunching efficiently and put considerable effort into doing this. So when do you start to care, think about how you can participate most effectively, and stop to blame other people?
|
||
|
wcgridmember
Advanced Cruncher Joined: Mar 30, 2005 Post Count: 110 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
«What I do not agree with, is that the WCG staff should be blamed for not doing this.»
I'm not sure what they can or cannot do by themselves. *But* they could certainly: 1. Pressure BOINC to build a feature for assessing the hardware and estimate consumption; 2. Talk, dialogue, discuss, explain why they are not doing anything about this today; «WCG is a platform, were everyone can participate with any hardware one likes. WCG has no control over this.» Currently, maybe, but with the proper feature development with BOINC, there are two ways of addressing this: the soft way - just giving a warning to the user, but letting him/her continue using that computer if he/she wants to (I'm guessing this is your favorite from the two), or the hard way - having BOINC deny sending tasks to that computer. «So every single contributor is responsible to crunch with a minimal environmental and cost impact. And you know? There are repeated disussions about exactly this topic on this forum and elsewhere. Most serious participants I know really care about crunching efficiently and put considerable effort into doing this. So when do you start to care, think about how you can participate most effectively, and stop to blame other people?» Please, tell me why you think I do not care and I do not think about how I can participate most effectively. Also, if I had the technical expertise, I would jump in and try to collaborate on building the hardware/consumption feature for BOINC/WCGrid, but since I don't, shouldn't I do what is within my reach, keeping up the pressure on an issue I find is very important (which seems you find too from you last few sentences)? |
||
|
Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
I don't think you're going to get anywhere by posting on the forums.
There's been disagreement back and forth, so let's face it that neither side will back down. Instead, what you should do is get an official response from WCG; https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/viewContactUs.do |
||
|
KerSamson
Master Cruncher Switzerland Joined: Jan 29, 2007 Post Count: 1671 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
Hi wcgridmember,
----------------------------------------I do respect your opinion and I took time - like other members - for giving you some answers. However, my current feeling is that you try to interpret and to transform the provided arguments for continuing to argue implicitly against WCG. You are free to consider that WCG is useless and that it does not bring any benefits to Humanity. Nevertheless your current argumentation is at least artificial since you argue without taking into account the specificity of basic/fundamental research projects. It should be clear that today nobody knows how important and meaningful the results of the current projects are. But everybody hopes that those results will be valuable. Without knowing the end of the story (successful or less successful), a sincere cost-benefit analysis is impossible. We can only secure the computation efficiency. Everything else is pure speculation and assumption. Yves |
||
|
nickoli
Senior Cruncher USA Joined: Nov 28, 2005 Post Count: 167 Status: Offline Project Badges: |
You seem to miss my point again: I've basically said: "Let's not focus on estimating the marginal benefits, let's focus on estimating the marginal costs". No, I'm not assuming people are conducting some complicated cost-benefit analysis. I'm saying that people that crunch think this is a project worthwhile. I'm saying that it might not be worthwhile. It might be, but it also might not be. If we dared estimate the costs, we might *maybe* answer that question more or less easily with conclusions such as the ones I proposed. There is a third type of conclusion I've not mentioned earlier that could prove to be equally helpful in this context: Alas! WCGrid is overall worthwhile! [X is <far lower> than the number of the estimated people that could benefit from - say - cancer treatment or cure (or whatever the target of each WCGrid project) earlier], but if your computer specs are bellow Z, you should not crunch WCGrid on that computer, because with those specs your net contribution to humanity is most likely negative. 2. With these questions I'm posing all WCGrid members here, I'm hoping every WCGrid cruncher thinks about the displeasure of contributing to a project that does not want to estimate its costs. Might potentially make some good, true, but does not care about what bad it does. This is the current state of affairs of WCGrid. So much lack of transparency for an "educational device" that *maybe* would do the world better if it was discontinued. I'm stressing here *maybe*, because I'm not saying WCGrid is bad overall, it is clearly bad in terms of the not-caring-ness about the costs, true, but currently we don't know if it's bad or good and we're not even trying to figure out. «I think a more constructive use of time would be to stop eating meat instead of worrying about how many lives are lost due to WCG's infinitesimally small (if even empirically possible to consider) contribution to global warming.» What is your evidence for saying that WCG's costs are negligible? And please don't focus just on the global warming issue due to CO2 emissions, because there are also the financial costs from spending on electricity that could *for sure* do good elsewhere. «Again, it is not possible to quantify/estimate how many lives will be "saved" from the research we conduct here, because scientific investigation is rarely so cut-and-dry, action-impact, intervention-amelioration oriented. At least for me, this is about contributing to the corpus of scientific knowledge in a way that is dynamic: a handful of simulation results from my computer join other results who can be interpreted later and perhaps yield new simulations that, perhaps ad infinitum, eventually lead to "lives saved". Therefore, a cost-benefit analysis is simply not practical.» Again, let's try to estimate the marginal costs and not the marginal benefits!!! Hi again: I understand that you would like to better understand the costs, which totally makes sense. That said, we cannot call it a cost-benefit analysis, then, only a "cost analysis." For those who want to track how much electricity they are consuming through WCG participation, electricity use monitors like "Kill a Watt" can be purchased on Amazon for roughly $20. I do think it is incorrect to categorize WCG as being unwilling to estimate the costs, as you describe. Their rationale, from my understanding, is that users' spare computing time already exists and this is a noble way to utilize it. Measuring "marginal costs" is difficult for WCG to do on a systems-level because, for one, it is not possible for them to know how people would be using their computer otherwise. I totally support you, and anyone else conducting grid computing, to measure their wattage usage differential: i.e., wattage used while crunching WCG minus idle computing wattage, with some kind of factor for additional machine wear based on that unit of increased wattage, which is extremely hard to estimate. I just don't think it is necessary. Whatever "marginal cost" created by my small tablet crunching 8 threads at a time is facially small compared to, for instance, the similar wattage my cat's water fountain consumes—and that fountain hasn't contributed to scientific knowledge nor facilitated my own interest in this research approach and the projects using it. |
||
|
|