Exclusive: New NSIDC director Serreze explains the “death spiral” of Arctic ice, brushes off the “breathtaking ignorance” of blogs like WattsUpWithThat

http://climateprogress.org/2009/06/05/nsidc-d...ctic-ice-wattsupwiththat/



ASS... had not seen that moniker before, but the Unscientific America book certainly gives insight where it's coming from.

JAXA adjusted down: 4,890,938 and an Arctic detail picture to go with that.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

The Circum-Arctic sailing navigators are measuring 7.5 to 9C sea surface such as at Point Hope temperature as all 3 passages are open. In the Arctic Sea? Yes in the Arctic Ocean and the RTG anomaly map tells us exactly where warm winds are blowing too.



http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png



Yes, that wind is always blowing from the wrong direction, just when recovery was looming and if the temp data of the A Watts select stations cant be trusted, who's left but to dismiss the collective and cross-confirming findings of thousands of scientists... then Oh Solo Mio, the man from Odiham will single handedly topple it all.

Wow, sea breeze here and 26 Celsius at 17:00 CST... the Inconvenient Truth.

Captains Log Supplemental: Same as I wrote yesterday... the Ice is still Rotten... there where we can still find it.

Here's another great way to depict sea ice volume loss as calculated from a raft of data, those sub captains records too...



Is it underwater winds or the building Ocean Heat Content from greenhouse gas forcings and feedback from water vapor... It ain't sunspots and far as we know the Mexican golf stream has not moved up either, though at Viking times when they farmed and hunted on that south tip of Greenland it may have had a different track... the Medieval Warming Anomaly was a rather regional limited event, but none of that then can be found to apply today to explain the Modern Global Warming.

Who's done it... the usual suspect maybe, the butler? Svante Arrhenius calculated in 1896 that it would be humans doing this and he was found to be right... what else can 9.4 Billion tonnes of annual atmospheric CO2 gas injection do... year after year after year after year and only half WAS absorbed by earth... each year as saturation grows it get's a little less and more and more is found the remain in the air we breath... good for plants... well good for bad plants which do not permanently sequester C02. Trees do, they store it long term in celluloses, but trees are dying for various reasons... pine beetle surviving warmer winters... bark beetle and a few more investations.

It Ain't True they say ... the Layman shouting out the scientists who've studied the topics and observe the different elements that make up our biosphere.

An interesting paper by Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School (many hits on google and Arctic climate studies)

http://soa.arcus.org/abstracts/advancements-a...ing-arctic-climate-change

He predicts a ''fall'' ice free Arctic as early as 2016 + /- 3 years i.e. by 2013 it could already happen. The rate of loss of Multi Year Ice is staggering, so when essentially winter ice only is comprised of single year ice it follows that it's not an outlandish proposition.

http://soa.arcus.org/sites/soa.arcus.org/file...1-7-maslowski-wieslaw.pdf

Conclusions:

1. The rate of decrease of sea ice thickness and volume
appears to be much greater than that of sea ice extent
2. Oceanic heat has contributed critical preconditioning to
sea ice melt in the western Arctic since the mid-1990s
3. Near ice-free summer Arctic might become a reality
much sooner than GCMs predict
4. A regional high-resolution Arctic Climate System Model
can address GCM deficiencies and improve predictive
skill of climate models at seasonal to decadal scales

When the winds spread the remaining ice to hold up the EXTENT appearances it's "Recovery", when the winds compact the remaining ice it's just "the darn wind"... somewhere in there is a logical fallacy a most common occurrence in Aint Truthosphere land. What's new?

edit: And a sea ice free Arctic summer has substantial albedo consequences. The dark ocean is superb energy absorber, at 24/7 insolation.

marysduby,

The word is insolation as what I wrote, not isolation. Literally In-Sun so to speak. And yes there's very deep environmental concern over spills in the Arctic... You cant drum up 100,000 people to go clean up a British Pollution.

Back on ice, a first mock up was generated from the brand new ESA CryoSat-2 mission.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9773/arcticthicknessmockup.jpg

Still very low resolution but it gives an indication of real time thicknesses, again very low res, but we'll soon be having a good comparitive view to the atmos picture:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

Still enormous swats of very low concentration sea ice, by slightest breeze compact-able.

And whilst in black and white world per JAXA, a 2 day mean running chart, dropped 60km^2 off the globe. Nasty weather is predicted for the coming days, so if it goes further down is anyone's guess, but such steep changes as observed so late this month is new. It's very close to the bet I made, which I'm going to win by default. It was 4.95 million as September mean I entered. Present model shows 4.999 million.



PS, I really hope for David Autumns that he gets the Swiss job. Then he'll be very close to the many alpine glaziers and do hands on visits and speak to the indigenous where it's regrowing and where it's shrinking. Nice places such as San Bernardino, Grossglockner where marmots live, but my favorite to measure, the Marmalades. Extremely well shaded, 365 days year skying and retreating continuously. A whole battalion was dug in there during WWI.

On marmots, well they have been found to be great climate forecasters... visit the FriendsOfGinAndTonic site (#1 AGW Denial Site in Canada & Australia): http://friendsofginandtonic.org/files/ccba3d1ec7af41519df16407a238f947-193.html

For your leisurely weekend Saturday pleasure.