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Thread: Not sure how much longer they will be able to keep crunching in the UK |
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
Yes marysduby, your responsible industrial captain.
----------------------------------------On the Laughlin, beg your pardon, brain flatulence article in Newsweek, literally thousands of comments have come out what on earth is wrong with the man? One such post: What is more bizarre is the total faith that deniers have that, whatever we do to the planet, we will be alright. Most credible people recognise that there are uncertainties in climate science. Why do deniers obviously strongly believe that the uncertainties of outcome will be in our favour? In any risk analysis of the future, it seems obvious to me that I have to consider the consequences of the top end of the predicted range of outcomes of climate disruption before I can proportionately assess the relative cost and benefits of action or inaction. I also have to consider that there may be “unknown unknowns” (which were obviously not incorporated in the models and their predictions) which could severely bite us – the recent discoveries about plummeting plankton levels may be one of these. Deniers are just convinced that we will get away with anything we do, as if we had some divine right or something… emphasis mine... the oceans are acidifying, the Arctic Ocean is found to not absorb CO2 now that the Sea Ice has largely come off for longer periods. And as for the looky looky, how much sea ice extent there was around the Antarctic, anyone up to answer the question why that huge plummet off in recent weeks? Is it the homogeneity and lack of thickness of the ice that is the root cause?  "More Ice so there more to melt" I suppose the argument is. Why would that circumpolar circulation transport so much more off now compared to then? Ain't the sea ice sticky any more? "Some years are good, some years are bad" ... except our one off planet seems to not agree with the good part in these decades... It's globally down on many fronts! What would the Earth relative axel to the sun have been when palmtrees grew on greenland... where were the continents then... what was CO2 atmospheric level then and how much UV got through in those days? The times they are A'changin... in past very very slowly... these days faster than ever found in the paleolithic records... hardly an unknown unknown left.
WCG
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
More on Laughlin...Dana wrote in:
----------------------------------------I had the same reaction when I read this article. It’s mind-bogglingly stupid. Of course the Earth doesn’t care. The Earth isn’t a sentient being, it’s a rock flying through space which will continue flying through space with or without humans residing on it. Thanks Newsweek for lowering the IQ of everyone reading your magazine.
WCG
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
The NYT has a piece up with a number of scientists writing in... Carl Wunch of MIT asks: Willfully Ignorant?
----------------------------------------http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/17/...belists-climate-thoughts/ Carl Wunsch, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: It is clear that much of the physics community believes it knows much more about climate change than do earth scientists (recall the bio. of Freeman Dyson in the Sunday Times Magazine). Much of the skepticism by people like Dyson arises from the use of extremely complicated numerical models interpreted as being predictions. Many physicists look at those models and say something like “we know about numerical simulation and you can’t possibly believe those results.” They then infer that the whole subject is garbage. That Arrhenius and others worked out the basic physics 100+ years ago, almost on the back of an envelope, has been completely lost to sight. (And there is no doubt that a lot of rubbish is propagated as climate science.) Laughlin’s case is different, and suggests willful ignorance. The physics argument seems simply that (1) past climates have been very different from today (true); (2) the changes are large compared to what we see from global warming, or expect to see, anytime soon (true). Ergo (3), there’s nothing to be done. (Physics arrogance is real, as are non sequiturs.) I’m reminded of the old joke about the man falling off the Empire State Building who as he passes the 30th floor says “so far so good.” Civilization arose and thrives in a rather narrow climate range. And the earth never before had 6+billion people. I wonder if Laughlin has views about proliferation of nuclear weapons? After all, the amount of energy releasable is a tiny fraction of what we get from the sun — so why worry?
WCG
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David Autumns
Ace Cruncher UK Joined: Nov 16, 2004 Post Count: 11062 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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Here's a piece that is right up our street
----------------------------------------Includes Weather, NOAA, Cluster Computing with Graphics Cards, CUDA, thrown in for good luck A news item almost customised for this thread  http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/09/22/weather_at_gtc/ Sek I think it's finally, fingers crossed, maybe, you never know, stranger things have happened, given up on this years melt at the North Pole, perhaps, with a bit of luck, though I wouldn't bet my non-existent house on it as it wrong footed even the experts you know. Unfortunately for the doom mongers it's turned around just inside of 2008. Unlucky Sek, maybe next year you will be able to revel once again in the imminent demise of us all. Or maybe not Have a look at progress here folks http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm Dave  |
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
"with a bit of luck"... you're making great strides on gaining understanding... so how did concentration and thickness turn out to be?
----------------------------------------PIOMAS updated per September 15 (an advanced Model based one piles of data)  NAVY PIPS was always overstating. Any idea why? Well they did not want to understate sea ice thickness estimation and their sub captains coming up and bending the turret. BW: Some call it "Recovery" when it's substantially down from 2009 and barely above 2008 at a quality rating of "Rotten"  Yes Ladies and Gentlemen, only today counts, for the weatherman Arctic Sea Ice EXTENT Average Jan 1-September 21 (the outer rim, when sea ice in a quadrant is greater than 15%) 2007 10527060 (1) 2008 10955077 (3) 2009 11015806 (4) 2010 10791614 (2) They call it "Recovery", those though who want to bet with our planet. Summer has ended up north, it's starting in the south and the variations are getting wilder by the year... just as was predicted. "I wouldn't bet my non-existent house" ... hmmm, not sure what the relevance is, but you might want to consider putting your eggs in a different basket.
WCG
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
We need more resolution: Yes, employ GPU's, if they can do the job, they should... but it will not change much of anything that Svante Arrhenius told the world in 1896 would be a likely outcome... amazing foresight.
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WCG
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
Just updated on
----------------------------------------http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/  and the Toronto Treaty signed by most governments to regulate and help stop the Ozone layer destroying madness having effect to offset some of that AGGI... less UV getting through means less getting converted to the LW radiation loving GHG in the troposphere. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/odgi/  Sadly, the real baddies CFC11 and 12 (Freon) do not seem to want to get less. Hey David, did we not tell you before that the destruction of the Ozone layer and the concentration of that over the Antarctic causes stratospheric cooling and co-ops for that Antarctic Occilation to narrow, to suck in more moist air from the south (which is 360 degrees overthere)... to cause it to snow more over there? And still total Ice-sheet thickness is declining. See post by marysduby, 2 scientists claiming it's half than thought before, due to supposed miscalculations on Isostatic movement... thing is, to repeat the repeated: Take billions of tonnes off and the Earth crust comes up... great masking. Are they wrong or are they right... convenient doubt dispersers reading the reviewer commentaries. PS, CERN itself fluxes 30 centimeters over shorter periods so the scientists there have to continually adjust that particle beam. Is it not amazing that the boffins can figure that out... now why would they be wrong on the 14-15 um LW radiation responses of CO2 (for starters as there are more)? Just tell us. We're all ears. Why would they have it so incredibly wrong? Oh wait, it's the 8th decimal factor. If that's wrong, everything is wrong. Yup, we've seen that fallacy been posited a million times.
WCG
----------------------------------------Please help to make the Forums an enjoyable experience for All! [Edit 1 times, last edit by Sekerob at Sep 22, 2010 6:07:03 PM] |
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
There was the marysduby linked paper "only" half the melt , still melt, and Trendberth expressing it to be a travesty that the missing heat could not be explained... seems the 2 might be connected in the form of Ocean Heat Content, Deep Ocean Heat Content to be precise.
----------------------------------------http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100920_oceanwarming.html So, when Dr. Pielke exclaims that all that heat escaped to space in a matter of a few months and big natural events such as Panitubo resetting the warming clock, look closely at what El Nino / La Nina change overs are doing... helping to mask global warming. Science works!
WCG
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David Autumns
Ace Cruncher UK Joined: Nov 16, 2004 Post Count: 11062 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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---------------------------------------- [Edit 2 times, last edit by David Autumns at Sep 23, 2010 10:10:04 AM] |
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Sekerob
Ace Cruncher Joined: Jul 24, 2005 Post Count: 20043 Status: Offline |
Just put on me weatherman cap, weather being what you get and climate being what we expect (paraphrasing Tom Sawyer) and running a records analysis on global sea ice area, the real stuff in 2D (what you get when looking at atmos). Enter September 20, 2010, last available date, filtered any number with an equal or greater negative anomaly. This got spat out in million km^2:
----------------------------------------Date Day/Year Global Anomaly Yes madams and sirs, for those still waiting on September 13, only 4 days in 2007 showed a greater negative.... some call that "Recovery". Of course, to lessen the blow  the AT sphere will have that soothing thought it's only 0.4549% of the global surface cover showing more ocean, not white, highly reflective ice to help us to keep our cool.Laughlin: "Willful ignorant" and Newsweek "lowering the IQ of their readers" so Dana phrased it. I agree. edit: PS, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) moves at a leisurely 20cm/sec and is about 2000 km wide and goes several km deep. The Mexican golf stream moves at 2.5 meters per second at surface. Now that I'd call a rip-torrent that would tear away Sea Ice. Pictures tell stories:  And I just realized I flew over the Antarctic in 2004... regrettably mid winter.
WCG
----------------------------------------Please help to make the Forums an enjoyable experience for All! [Edit 2 times, last edit by Sekerob at Sep 23, 2010 4:20:37 PM] |
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