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BobbyB
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Are we getting close to anywhere?

I just read the thread Hesitant to contribute to this one https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/forums/wcg/viewthread_thread,43064

I'm doing ARP on my setup and am wondering if it is getting anywhere: like for real. I read the project news headlines on https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/research/arp1/news.do and see nothing of note.

Bottom line from the ARP overview is "forecasting" or in people talk predict where it will rain. "Ultimately, this can lead to more accurate rainfall forecasts...." I agree with the the goal "to help farmers successfully raise their crops".

In the "How you can help" section it states "While this process can take years, it accelerates that would otherwise take decades, or might even be impossible".

Now I am not saying that I would even consider dropping ARP but I am looking hard at the last four words "might even be impossible". The project has considered this eventuality.

I have low expectations for this project of predicting the rain.
[Apr 24, 2021 3:59:15 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Falconet
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

"In the "How you can help" section it states "While this process can take years, it accelerates that would otherwise take decades, or might even be impossible"."


I think what "might be impossible" means is that if not for WCG, it might be impossible to even start this project elsewhere.

I think, of course.
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kwolff88
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

The way I see it... if we don't try, we'll never know. smile
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BobbyB
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

I think what "might be impossible" means is that if not for WCG
It does not mean that. "It accelerates that would otherwise take decades, or might even be impossible."
Notice the comma. That's an either or situation.

The way I see it... if we don't try, we'll never know
I knew someone would answer that to which I say: put together a football team from friends and people in your neighbourhood and play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (US) or Manchester United (UK). Your chances are less than zero to win but if we don't try, we'll never know.

A collateral event which could come of the game is that the pro team might recognise a natural talent on your team and draft him but that was not the goal was it?

The same could happen for ARP but the goal to to predict the rain.

The guy who invented the microwave oven was not trying to invent it but it was a collateral event.

So onward we plod.
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Falconet
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

I read that entire sentence has having to do solely with the resources that WCG offers, without which the completion of the project would take decades or simply deemed impossible to do because of the large time required to compute all the work.

Maybe you're right, I'm not a native English speaker.
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- AMD Ryzen 5 1600AF 6C/12T 3.2 GHz - 85W
- AMD Ryzen 5 2500U 4C/8T 2.0 GHz - 28W
- AMD Ryzen 7 7730U 8C/16T 3.0 GHz
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Falconet at Apr 24, 2021 7:48:24 PM]
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BobbyB
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

If I read it in my French mind (I'm bilingual) I can see your point of view. Hmmm interesting
[Apr 24, 2021 8:26:37 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
kwolff88
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

I knew someone would answer that to which I say: put together a football team from friends and people in your neighbourhood and play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (US) or Manchester United (UK). Your chances are less than zero to win but if we don't try, we'll never know.

So you think the chances of ARP managing to predict rainfall (or improve predictions) are the same as a team of random people beating the Buccaneers? Ouch.
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Robokapp
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

look.

we're not predicting the biggest nearly-prime number that divides by 1, itself, 2 and 1234567890^9876543210 only.

in my mind THAT is what wasted time is.

this... might still be useful. eventually.


edit: probably that number also divides by 5... bad example.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Robokapp at Apr 25, 2021 8:35:21 AM]
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Mike.Gibson
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

This is a project that requires a very considerable amount of computing power. There are only 2 ways to get that. One is to use a supercomputer - too expensive! The other is to utilise thousands of volunteers - us!

As we have now completed 61 iterations out of 183, we are now one third of the way through, so quite an achievement for a bunch of amateurs!

Well done everyone and keep crunching.

Mike
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: Are we getting close to anywhere?

edit: probably that number also divides by 5... bad example.

No question about it, 5 is a factor. biggrin
Cheers
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Sgt. Joe
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