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World Community Grid Forums
Category: Active Research
Forum: Africa Rainfall Project
Thread: Are we getting close to anywhere? |
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Thread Status: Active Total posts in this thread: 13
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BobbyB
Veteran Cruncher Canada Joined: Apr 25, 2020 Post Count: 638 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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So you think the chances of ARP managing to predict rainfall (or improve predictions) are the same as a team of random people beating the Buccaneers? Ouch. YEPI'll welcome it when someone tells me: You were wrong. We did it. this... might still be useful. eventually. What I said also. That's why I am still in.As we have now completed 61 iterations out of 183 61 of 183 what? What exactly are we computing? I seem to remember reading "weather data since 2019" OR post a link if it is on the site somewhere.[Edit 2 times, last edit by BobbyB at Apr 25, 2021 3:26:43 PM] |
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Jim1348
Veteran Cruncher USA Joined: Jul 13, 2009 Post Count: 1066 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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I read it the way that Falconet does. It does not make much sense otherwise.
But it would be naïve to think that any research project guarantees useful results, including COVID-19 research, or cancer research, for that matter. We do the simulations, but the real world tests may be different. And the economic value is not certain either. There may be better ways of doing it in the future. A lot of good research (in the scientific sense) is never used in practice. |
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Mike.Gibson
Ace Cruncher England Joined: Aug 23, 2007 Post Count: 12594 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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In this case they started with historic data from the Weather Channel across some 35,500 patches of Sub-Saharan Africa, each measuring 3 Km x 3 Km.
Those patches are the second part of the unit name. The third part of the name which is currently 061 is the iteration which cover a 2 day period (48 hours). Each checkpoint occurs at 12.5% intervals (6 hours). We started crunching on iteration 000. Then they checked the results against the weather 2 days later and released the next iteration (001) for that patch. They have now been doing that for 61 iterations (122 days of weather). It is self-checking and hopefully self-correcting. Hopefully after a year of weather (366 days/183 iterations) they will have a working model. You may have noticed that sometimes the first copy of a unit has a deadline of only 3.5 days instead of 7 days. That is because that patch has got a little behind the others. I hope this explanation clarifies the project. Mike |
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