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Momist
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Differing concerns

In another thread ( Why are you crunching for the World Community Grid? ) I stated my reasons for leaving the WCG for another project, which is modelling climate change.

marysduby responded with:
" I really dont care at all about global warming as i feel it is a natural thing that just happens--there was global warming supposidly when man was not evolved yet--what do you think caused that? I am worried about oil consumption i think we need to develope some other source of energy--also the earth was completly frozen at one tjme or so they say how did it warm up again without evil women to warm it up again? I would rather concentrate on something that would benefit man and women than worrie about the weather"

Well and good, but this led me to question my own motives, and here I'd like to try and justify them. I'm not campaigning for the opposition, but from this (British) side of the Gulf Stream, the American attitude to the issue of Global Warming seems somewhat blinkered.

Those of you crunching in the fight against Aids are undoubtedly doing a 'good thing' and, as I stated earlier, I have only admiration for what is being done in that cause. However, I have been trying to get a perspective on the human condition at the start of the 21st century, and it is starting to reveal the 20th century as a severe aberration, distorted by our profligate consumption of fossil fuels from which springs all our current wealth.

As regards the prospects for oil production/consumption, it would re-pay anyone to simply spend a few minutes reading the history of oil at this url:
http://energybulletin.net/8295.html

As regards Climate Change, I have not yet been able to locate anything on the web which gives a dramatic attitude changing view, but the telling evidence for me was in a BBC TV documentary which showed the natural fluctuations in temperature over thousands of years that marysduby talks of, and follows up with demonstating a sudden and uncharacteristic surge in temperature over the last century, which is occurring during a period of general cooling - remember in the '70s we were supposed to be heading very slowly into a new ice age? The general cooling has not gone away, it's just been totally overwhelmed in the last 30 years by the greenhouse effect.

The science may be imprecise - after all, the thermometer was a relatively recent invention - but the combination of a 'sudden' (century) change of temperature direction coupled with the loss of really really huge areas of the Arctic and especially the Antarctic ice, - AND - the 'sudden' and escalating use of fossil fuels, really does merit my decision.

Perhaps others might wish to air some views regarding other deserving causes that the concept of distributed computing might be more usefully be focussed on?

Ian
[Feb 26, 2006 6:49:24 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Momist
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Re: Differing concerns

Sorry to reply to my own post, but I have now found the references I wanted to point towards. The global temperature graph, known as the 'hockey stick' graph, might not be familiar to everyone, so you can have a look at it here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3569604.stm

If you want an American view on this, have a look at:
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/hockeystickFAQ.html

Maybe you can see why I'm concerned.

Ian
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Re: Differing concerns

Your points are well made. Clearly, the official US position on global warming completely ignores reality. This is widely known, and irks me considerably.

I am exceedingly pleased that the BBC effort is introducing thousands of new people to grid computing, and setting them up using BOINC for a short term project. When it is over, hopefully they will consider what other uses their computer time can serve.

However, none of this makes me want to suddenly switch to another project. A modelling project for climate change is not necessarily easily converted to use a distributed grid. Much of the modelling will need supercomputers. This is where the nifty part comes in.... by working on life science problems here at WCG, we are actually freeing up supercomputer time somewhere else. Just like those odd people who refuse to work on AIDS problems; the WCG system merely sends out more AIDS workunits to more rational people, and no individual project suffers.
[Feb 26, 2006 7:20:39 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Former Member
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Re: Differing concerns

I think you folks are confusing American attitudes with the policies of our government. They aren't always one & the same. confused

BTW I've been running the BBC project on one computer since the 15th. wink
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Momist
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smile Re: Differing concerns

This is where the nifty part comes in.... by working on life science problems here at WCG, we are actually freeing up supercomputer time somewhere else.


This is a consideration that had not occurred to me. I'll get off my soap box now, but still be crunching for the BBC project for the next 12 months or so. No doubt I'll be back.

Ian, the terminator . . . smile
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Re: Differing concerns

This is a consideration that had not occurred to me. I'll get off my soap box now, but still be crunching for the BBC project for the next 12 months or so. No doubt I'll be back.

Ian, the terminator . . . smile Hello Ian,the terminator--I am happy you answered back--I am also concerned about these issues,but i dont think there is much we can do about it.In the 70s we heard a lot about solar storms that affected radio and those kinds of communications-We cant control the sun but we can try to help all of humanity. People on both sides are politically motivated,our politicians put their finger in the air or check the recent polls to see which direction to go.I would like to rid the world of these terrible diseases.I also agree global warming should be studied--but what bothers me is where people try to put the blame--we should worry more about how to feed our increasing population--my grandparents came UK Wales and they could live off the land. Most of us cannot do this well i am off subject--so good luck to you smile
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Re: Differing concerns

Perhaps others might wish to air some views regarding other deserving causes that the concept of distributed computing might be more usefully be focussed on?

Ian

All the computers in the universe (parallel, anti, muti-dimensional included) are not going to get politicians off their greedy behinds to do what we all already know needs to be done to reverse global warming.

Nor will all the computer power in the world change the fact that we know exactly how this change can be accomplished (does the term fossil fuels ring a bell?)

There is already too precious little time for so many people who are suffering and dying right at this very moment to squander these valuable resources "preaching to the choir," searching the sky for ET or answering rhetorical questions about “the meaning of CPU existence.”

You asked for an alternative view, Ian? biggrin
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Re: Differing concerns

Hi, Momist

First off I am one of those Americans who dont buy into Global Warming.

The reasoning is quite simple: the alarmist scientists see a possible problem with hydrocarbon pollution raising the global temperture of the Earth.

Point taken! Next question what is the temperture going to rise to in the next 50 years?

Well we dont know because our prediction models are not sophisticated enough to give an accurate number of what the temperture may be.

But, it is our best guess that the temp will rise.

Duh! wow good reason to screw up our global economy so some groups guess dont happen.

Instead of being a naysayer in all of this garbage. I have taken a positive direction and decided to help the scientists come up with a better model. So they can get a more realistic view of what the temp may be 50 years hence.

I joined climate prediction.net on Sept. 1 2004 and have been crunching away 24/7 with a Pentium 4 3 gighertz processor in full hyperthreading mode.

I have since crunched 24 models and dont intend to stop.

BTW, it is because of the crunch done on the SLAB and Thermhalene and Sulpher models that the BBC now has a coupled ocean model to hand out.

Have a nice and successful BBC crunch...good luck.....ciao
[Feb 27, 2006 5:59:25 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
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Re: Differing concerns

terrible post!

a. insulting to americans
b. insulting to people who don't believe warming is man-made
c. implies climate prediction models are not 'speculative'
d. implies climate prediction is more important than wcg
e. from a guy who hasn't been here for 10 months and won't be back for a year.

i am not buying. hasta la vista baby....
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Former Member at Feb 27, 2006 9:52:38 AM]
[Feb 27, 2006 9:39:55 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
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Re: Differing concerns

b. insulting to people who don't believe warming is man-made
I have no problem being insulting to stupid people. Why should we care if anyone else is rude to them too?

Something as complex as global warming and climate (not specifically climate change, just anything climate related) is so hard to model accurately that we may never get all the details straight, or be able to make accurate, detailed predictions in the long term.

However, if I may use an analogy: you don't need a weatherman to tell you it's raining. And boy is it raining! The preponderance of scientific evidence, thought and research accepts that global warming is a real problem, and that is is mostly caused directly by human activity. We know what needs doing. Most countries are doing their darndest to correct it. But not the good ol' US of A.... not when they can force bad science down our throats, dressed up in political bull excrement to protect their increasingly selfish interests.



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This post has been edited for profanity - nelsoc
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Former Member at Feb 28, 2006 2:44:32 PM]
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