The reported case in France is finally a confirmation.
If you take a detailed look on the various epidemiological data over the last 12 weeks, it was obvious that it was not possible for this epidemic to have started only in November or December 2019.
Until 6 weeks ago, I guessed a start in September 2019. Now I tend to think that it probably started already in July, maybe June 2019.
It would explain why the disease became, more or less at the same time, a significant issue at many places in the World. The reason is: the virus was already and quietly spread around the World during 2019 Quarter 4.
On LinkedIn, some people make a very good analytical and modelling job of this epidemic, see for example:
- Ignaz Furger
- Martin Lockstrom
- Hervé de Kergrohen
Beside the situation reported by JCU (Johns Hopkins University), there is a very interesting reporting at: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
Cheers,
Yves

How Network Science Surfaced 81 Potential COVID-19 Therapies

Researchers led by Albert-László Barabási used network-based models to discover existing drugs that might take on COVID-19. [Some already undergoing clinical trials, many more not.]

Much more at: https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/comput...tential-covid19-therapies

Is vitamin D deficiency a factor in severity of COVID-19?
Investigators are trying to determine why ethnic minorities in the UK and US have much higher death rates than average. The difference remains even after eliminating socio-economic factors such as overcrowded housing, other health problems, having to work in risky occupations, etc.

One theory is that dark-skinned people may be prone to vitamin D-deficiency in situations where they have limited exposure to the UV in sunlight, because their skin filters out more of the UV. (I remember that this was a problem for some of the African-Americans who migrated to high-latitude places like Sweden during the time of the Vietnam draft.)

(Implications if vitamin D deficiency contributes to severity of COVID-19:
- Are people who are self-isolating at home or in lockdown in aged care facilities getting enough UV exposure to make sufficient vitamin D?
- Should we take vitamin D supplements just in case?
)
From BBC World Service radio The Enquirer program, aired 7 May 2020.
Podcast: Why are so many ethnic minorities dying in the UK and US?

Any deficiencies are likely to weaken the body's defences for anything, so that is a good candidate, but shouldn't be checked on its own.

I have reduced levels of vitamin D, Calcium and Iron probably due to hormone treatment for prostate cancer but am now getting supplements to boost those levels.

They are currently only talking about vaccine (for prevention) or a cure ( to recover from it) but reducing the severity (lowering death rates) would be a third line of attack.

Mike