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Noel Roberts
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Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

I thought that I would try a rough estimate of how many computers are out there, that WCG could tap into. Currently, there are less than 500,000 computers (devices) worldwide that are part of WCG.

Has anyone else attempted such analysis?

I put data from US and Canadian sensus information for population, # of households, # of households with Internet / high speed internet. I used some of the ratios to guess for other countries (top 5 for now).

These numbers are completely rough and would need further research to better flush out, but what I can say is that the current # of WCG registered devices is roughly 0.5% of the home (i.e. not business) computers with access to high speed internet for the top 5 contributing countries.

The potential in these top 5 countries alone could be around 98 million computers.

Here's some of my rough math (extracted from a bigger set of spreadsheet data):


Country-----population-------Households with Internet
USA---------295,734,134------68,500,000
Canada-----32,805,041--------7,386,750
UK-----------60,441,457------14,995,018
France------60,656,178-------15,048,288
Germany---82,431,390-------20,450,536

Country--CBL/DSL househld----avail WCG home devices
USA--------54,000,000------------59,400,000
Canada-----5,170,725--------------5,687,798
UK-----------9,458,396-------------9,931,316
France------9,491,997--------------9,966,597
Germany--12,899,569-------------13,544,547

-----------------------------Total----98,530,258
[Dec 7, 2006 5:41:28 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Sekerob
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Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

Welcome to WCG

Whilst there are almost 463,000 devices registered, we have like something more than 11% returning work on any given day. Many of these devices are double registrations, like one of my machines due multiple network failures and re-installation having 11 to it's name..... the percentage of the total available population is thus much lower.

As WCG is starting up international projects from outside of the English language area, we hope to see more coming over..... spread the word, put a link thru on your personal website... put a link in your My-space registration, or join the WCGwiki project... David Autumns is a driving force behind this.

cheers
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sekerob at Dec 7, 2006 7:30:09 AM]
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Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

Hello Noel Roberts,
Here is a URL that converts CPU hours reported for Yesterday in our Statistics into the equivalent number of computers running 24 hours a day: http://vspx27.stanford.edu/DCcomparison.html

There is currently no information on the Statistics page to tell us how many active computers and active members we have. Each time somebody reinstalls the WCG software on a computer, the device count increments.

Lawrence
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devilish Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

there are 600 milion pcs worldwide

and estimated 400 milion of those could easlly run wcg,


THAT WOULD RESULT IN PROJECTS BEEING FINIISHED IN 24- 48 HOURS, PER PROJECT


NICE HA:)
[Dec 8, 2006 4:36:47 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Noel Roberts
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Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

How did you arrive at that number? I could see that as being realistic, that there are 600 million currently operating personal computers. Maybe it's low? Would that include both home and business (non-server) computers?

Noel
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Sekerob
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Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

Actually read a few weeks ago 900 million+.... a googled source mentions 1 billion with 300 million obsolete PC's in US alone... has been mentioned in the tech press a few times..... & Bill G knows how many Windows XP's are around.

http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/worl...-computers-users-map.html

Top PC density is a surprise...San Marino..... that little tax haven state has only 1 main road in from Rimini!

Edit: Spellchecked
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sekerob at Dec 9, 2006 1:11:42 PM]
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

I see they have an error on the site. The initial chart shows the United States on twice, but if you go down a little ways it shows #7 should really be Bermuda. (Aside: I often wondered why San Marino was an independent state. Was it a left over from Italian unification in the 19th cent.?)

Cheers

Sgt.Joe

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davidhobbs
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Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

Sekerob,

The estmated number of computers in the world is an impressive one. A friend of mine remembers seeing a British government report just after the second world war that estimated a possible national requirement in the foreseeable future for as many as six computers...


David.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by davidhobbs at Dec 9, 2006 10:58:05 AM]
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Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

IMO, you'll never see widespread participation until Microsoft, or Apple, or somebody integrates BOINC into the OS and it ships as a standard feature.
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Re: Estimating number of available home computers for WCG

Hello RyanMcCabe,
My own opinion is that widespread participation will occur if and only if we get penetration into the school age group. Older people get set in their accustomed ways.

Lawrence
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