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World Community Grid Forums
Category: Active Research
Forum: OpenPandemics - COVID-19 Project
Thread: What's the highest batch you have received? |
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Thread Status: Active Total posts in this thread: 3771
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GunZi
Senior Cruncher Joined: Apr 1, 2020 Post Count: 160 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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24876
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Krzysztof_F
Senior Cruncher Poland Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Post Count: 176 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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OPN1_0024940_04704
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ThreadRipper
Veteran Cruncher Sweden Joined: Apr 26, 2007 Post Count: 1324 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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OPN1_0024986_06825_1  Join The International Team: https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/team/viewTeamInfo.do?teamId=CK9RP1BKX1 AMD TR2990WX @ PBO, 64GB Quad 3200MHz 14-17-17-17-1T, RX6900XT @ Stock AMD 3800X @ PBO AMD 2700X @ 4GHz [Edit 1 times, last edit by ThreadRipper at Dec 2, 2020 9:15:18 AM] |
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Mike.Gibson
Ace Cruncher England Joined: Aug 23, 2007 Post Count: 12594 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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Sorry, that last completion date was for the start of the last batch. It should have been 31 March 2021 for when the units start to run out and 7 April to completion.
This has been based on the last 8 dates (7 intervals) because of the hiatus at the end of October, but future forecasts will be based on a rolling average of the last 10 intervals. Mike |
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GunZi
Senior Cruncher Joined: Apr 1, 2020 Post Count: 160 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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25058
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Mike.Gibson
Ace Cruncher England Joined: Aug 23, 2007 Post Count: 12594 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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First past the post:
1000 Little Mermaid 27 May 2000 Mike.Gibson 9 June 3000 Sirius B 22 June 4000 daka 5 July 5000 daka 16 July 6000 HK-Steve 27 July 7000 HK-Steve 7 August 8000 GunZi 17 August 9000 pututu 27 August 10000 HK-Steve 6 September 11000 HK-Steve 17 September 12000 HK-Steve 27 September 13000 BladeD 6 October 14000 HK-Steve 15 October 15000 yoerik 25 October 16000 BladeD 26 October 17000 GunZi 27 October 18000 awpollak 2 November 19000 Richard3 7 November 20000 Richard3 10 November 21000 awpollak 14 November 22000 Richard3 19 November 23000 Krzysztof_F 23 November 24000 alamb1951 28 November 25000 GunZi 2 December Who will report the first 26000? Possibly about 7 December. As there are reportedly 50,000 batches, this would represent 50% of the first target, once we have returned more over 25000s than there are under, incomplete. Mike |
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Mike.Gibson
Ace Cruncher England Joined: Aug 23, 2007 Post Count: 12594 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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Based on the last 8 intervals, my forecast for completion is now 5 April 2021.
The new basis will start with 27000. Mike |
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ThreadRipper
Veteran Cruncher Sweden Joined: Apr 26, 2007 Post Count: 1324 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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OPN1_0025128_01392_0
----------------------------------------Great, halfway (or so) there of the first target! Here's an updated chart. This time with a polynomial extrapolation trendline.  Join The International Team: https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/team/viewTeamInfo.do?teamId=CK9RP1BKX1 AMD TR2990WX @ PBO, 64GB Quad 3200MHz 14-17-17-17-1T, RX6900XT @ Stock AMD 3800X @ PBO AMD 2700X @ 4GHz [Edit 1 times, last edit by ThreadRipper at Dec 3, 2020 8:42:23 AM] |
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Richard3
Advanced Cruncher Joined: Apr 4, 2020 Post Count: 114 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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25187
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Mike.Gibson
Ace Cruncher England Joined: Aug 23, 2007 Post Count: 12594 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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ThreadRipper
Whilst your curve is very pretty and fits all the data points better, and the result is much closer to mine, it assumes conditions will change as they have been changing. My basis of working from the hiatus and then averaging over the last 10 intervals reflects the current situation and allows for modification as more results come in. I have used a spreadsheet for the calculation rather than a graph. Mike |
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