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Aurum
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The Great Basin
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Re: Still only 1 %

Hi, newbie here. How do I get one of those summary boxes at the bottom of some posts??? I tried a widget now but that's not it.
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...KRI please cancel all shadow-banning
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Aurum420 at Dec 27, 2017 7:43:52 PM]
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Former Member
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Re: Still only 1 %

Hi Aurum,
if you mean a box like the one I am using, you can ask for one to be generated for you here
After your link is created, apply it to your signature as explained here
Greetings, H7 peace
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PabloMalaga
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Re: Still only 1 %

Today we reach 4%

Years processed: 10475 years

Taking the above data for good we can assume that 100% are approximately: 262,000 years

Assuming an average of 80 years a day of processing at the current rate, we will delay processing 100% = 3273 days (approximately 9 years)

Can anyone take this estimate for granted?

I already discussed it on another occasion, and I think that a project of almost 10 years would be normal crunch it in Android and GPU ...
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: Still only 1 %

I agree with Klik. At the present rate this appears to be about a 10 year project. If the rate changes, that estimate could also change.
Cheers
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Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers*
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KLiK
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Re: Still only 1 %

Today we reach 4%

Years processed: 10475 years

Taking the above data for good we can assume that 100% are approximately: 262,000 years

Assuming an average of 80 years a day of processing at the current rate, we will delay processing 100% = 3273 days (approximately 9 years)

Can anyone take this estimate for granted?

I already discussed it on another occasion, and I think that a project of almost 10 years would be normal crunch it in Android and GPU ...

Well, tracking of ECDs is here, check it out: https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/forums/wcg/viewpostinthread?post=561692

I agree with Klik. At the present rate this appears to be about a 10 year project. If the rate changes, that estimate could also change.
Cheers

Thanks.
Did the calc for today had to do anything with it?
(calc: https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/forums/wcg/viewpostinthread?post=561114)
biggrin
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by KLiK at Jan 21, 2018 7:18:01 PM]
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Mike.Gibson
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Re: Still only 1 %

Based on a start date of 22 August 2017 and 4% achieved yesterday, the estimated finish date would be 17 January 2028.

However, there could be extensions and there will probably be improvements to the speed of machine over the time span. Also, the number of participants will also fluctuate.

If anyone is interested I have a spreadsheet which also estimates time and output required to my next Badge, for all projects.

Mike
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KLiK
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Re: Still only 1 %

Based on a start date of 22 August 2017 and 4% achieved yesterday, the estimated finish date would be 17 January 2028.

However, there could be extensions and there will probably be improvements to the speed of machine over the time span. Also, the number of participants will also fluctuate.

If anyone is interested I have a spreadsheet which also estimates time and output required to my next Badge, for all projects.

Mike

+1

Not to mention "weight of the projects".

But would Moore law come into existence here? As we don't rush to buy up new equipment? So we only grow sthg like 20% per year... cool
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Former Member
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Re: Still only 1 %

Based on a start date of 22 August 2017 and 4% achieved yesterday, the estimated finish date would be 17 January 2028.

However, there could be extensions and there will probably be improvements to the speed of machine over the time span.

Which both is going to be an absolute certainly.

They'll have only just to begun to scratch the surface variety of bacteria that often go uncharted and since Ryzen there has been a big push for oct-core CPUs for which I suspect Intel will make the norm when DDR5 RAM gets released later on this year.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Former Member at Jan 26, 2018 10:00:30 PM]
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: Still only 1 %

But would Moore law come into existence here? As we don't rush to buy up new equipment? So we only grow sthg like 20% per year... cool

This may be a little off topic but I did some crude calculations of time (in seconds) divided by points to get an indication of how computing power has grown over the years. From 2004 to late 2011 there was much growth with the seconds per point going from about 300 to about 30. From 2011 to the present we have progressed from 30 to about 19 seconds per point. The marginal gain in computing power has continued to slow, stabilizing at about the 19 second level since about mid 2016. This may not be a completely accurate picture because of the differences in the work unit mix over time, the different types of projects being crunched, software differences, etc.I do think there will be incremental increases in computer power and in the use of gpu's over time, but I would not expect any great changes in the next few years barring some technological breakthroughs. I see the crunching power increasing by the number of cores rather than the greater efficiency of each individual core and the ability of software developers to more effectively utilize the power of parallel processing. Just my thoughts.
Cheers
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*Minnesota Crunchers*
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Mike.Gibson
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Re: Still only 1 %

I would agree with Sgt. Joe. Boosting speed, increases heat generation faster than speed. Doubling cores would double heat generation, but at least it would be proportionate.

Increasing threads would be another avenue.

My terminology was ambiguous. When I said increasing the speed, I was referring to all ramifications - clock speed, more cores and more threads.

Mike
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