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World Community Grid Forums
Category: Active Research
Forum: Africa Rainfall Project
Thread: How do simulated rainstorms translate into real time prediction |
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Thread Status: Active Total posts in this thread: 3
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sptrog1
Master Cruncher Joined: Dec 12, 2017 Post Count: 1592 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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What is the connection ? We have been told that the weather is local and unpredictable because it is primarily thunderstorms. How does a simulated storm inform an African farmer.
There must be a logical progression or all this is a waste. |
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Bryn Mawr
Senior Cruncher Joined: Dec 26, 2018 Post Count: 384 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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What is the connection ? We have been told that the weather is local and unpredictable because it is primarily thunderstorms. How does a simulated storm inform an African farmer. There must be a logical progression or all this is a waste. A single run predicting the weather in a region is unreliable beyond a couple of days. A million runs for the region averaged gives a pretty good idea of what you can expect over a reasonable period. As a long term prediction, a trend lin can be generated that is going to be accurate within the limits of the model used - on a day by day basis it will be useless but month by month or year by year it will be accurate. The first is weather forecasting, the last is climate prediction, the middle is my guess at ARP. |
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Jim1348
Veteran Cruncher USA Joined: Jul 13, 2009 Post Count: 1066 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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I am a bit in the dark about what they are up to also. But it seems to be a longer-term project for improving their models.
As the researchers for the Africa Rainfall Project receive the results of these simulations, they'll be compared with rainfall data from The Weather Company, satellite data, and ground observations. This will help scientists better understand these storms and improve forecasting models. Ultimately, this can lead to more accurate rainfall forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa. In turn, this could give farmers more timely information about when to plant, help them obtain insurance, and become more resilient in the face of climate change. https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/research/arp1/overview.s |
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