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sptrog1
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Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

In introducing the GRAF. it would appear that IBM has decided to capitalize on its assets and perhaps monetize weather forcasting. Not that it hasn't been done already on several fronts. I suspect the IBM technology and partnerships are proprietary. I also suspect that the detail resolution ability to predict thunderstorms in subsaharan africa may not be there using only high altitude and barometric pressure sampling. However, conventional weather sampling in this area is likely also to be sparse due to lack of sites
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by sptrog1 at Nov 19, 2019 3:06:15 AM]
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sptrog1
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

The reference to the GRAF is here
The reference to corporate involvement in weather forecasting con be found in TIME Magazine

Sorry for the prior omissions
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DrMason
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

Thanks for the links! GRAF certainly does look interesting...

That said, I'm not sure what would be wrong with IBM "capitalizing on their assets and monetizing weather forecasting". A company is going to act like a company; and why shouldn't it be rewarded for performing research and providing a service when the market is underserved?

Now, it would be a different thing if WCG and GRAF were directly connected, since WCG is meant to be charitable in nature, but I don't see anything that suggests a connection. ARP is run as part of Delft's research using CPU processing, and GRAF does not seem to be connected to any research project and runs on GPUs, suggesting a different algorithm.

Now, will GRAF eventually benefit from WCG's ARP research? Perhaps. But everyone else will be able to as well. One of the requirements for running a project on WCG is that the research results and data are open-source, so anyone else should be able to make the same improvements to their algorithm. Don't see why IBM should hold themselves to a different standard than anyone else...
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sptrog1
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

I agree.
One wonders just what the ARP project is. It is certainly not for weather prediction (it takes 30 hours to predict a result 48 hrs in the future).
Some of what has been said is that they are trying for greater resolution. Enough to see thunderstorms.
Perhaps they are taking the standard 50x50KM square and subdividing it into smaller increments, storing the results and building a template for later use.
Could the effect of the appearance of the GRAF be like the finding of an Ebola antibody. I keep reminding myself that we are contributing to basic research.
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DrMason
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

It's a good question! I think you're probably right about the resolution. I remember crunching for climateprediction back in the day, and I thought the screensaver with all the colored squares was really interesting to watch. But I can only imagine how the resolution was on those old models. Probably several hundred or thousand square kilometers treated as a single data point.

Maybe previous models have been more "macro" models, and this is a more "micro" model? It's interesting how in a lot of sciences how different the models and equations are depending on the resolution of what you're studying. General & special relativity vs. quantum mechanics; microeconomics vs. macroeconomics; maybe there's something similar happening with weather. I'm interested to see what the results are, and if they turn out to be practical or basic research though! Exciting times laughing
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

Is this still valid in the production work units?

Yes that is correct each work unit is a specific geographic region. We are using nesting in WRF with three domains for each work unit. For the beta the outermost domain of each run is a 9 km by 9 km square. The two inner domains are 3 km x 3 km and 1 km x 1 km each.

Thanks,
armstrdj

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Dataman
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP


The reference to corporate involvement in weather forecasting con be found in TIME Magazine

For those interested in the corporate capitalization of the weather, I would recommend:
"The Coming Storm" by Michael Lewis
https://www.audible.com/pd/The-Coming-Storm-A...p;ref=a_lib_c4_lProduct_0
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supdood
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

One wonders just what the ARP project is. It is certainly not for weather prediction (it takes 30 hours to predict a result 48 hrs in the future).

If I am reading the project description correctly, it seems that we are running a climate model with real input variables from the past. The scientists will then compare the results of running the model against the weather that actually occurred during those time intervals for the geographic locations. If the model is an accurate predictor of weather events, I would assume that it will then be run forward to predict rainfall. Not sure how this would work with the aforementioned long compute times (maybe it would get some serious funding if it is shown to be accurate, and could then run on supercomputer time?).
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sptrog1
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

I doubt that WCG type super computing will ever be used for short term weather prediction because of the limitations seen above. However, the IBM GRAF seems to rely, among other things, on wide spread cell phone input. This may work in India (which is the portion of the map shown in the announcement) but may not be practical in Africa. I do fear that ARP will be eclipsed in the same way that the discovery of the vaccine eclipsed the Ebola effort.
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Jim1348
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Re: Implications of the new IBM Weather Machine when considering ARP

I have always assumed, based just on the description and not any detailed knowledge, that they were trying to help farmers decide what to plant for the next season. That is, several months ahead (if there are two or three growing seasons). It certainly is not a weather forecast.

And that interpretation would be consistent with the use of long-term weather models, as CPDN uses. It is just more detailed for Africa, and I think more useful. That is, if they ever send me some.
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