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sptrog1
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How long will this take?

I am assuming that this study is limited to sub saharan africa, an area of africa that might expect to have some rainfall.
In many ways "sub saharan africa" is a political term and not climatic; but I can find a line called "the transition zone" on the internet. Taking that into consideration, I estimate the area of sub saharan africa to be about 1/2 the total area of africa by eyeballing a geographic map without political divisions. Thus 1/2 of 30,370,000 sq K = 15,185,000 sq K. Possibly more, if my estimates are off.
I understand that each task that we crunch represents 250 sq K (which I shall call a "tile") and that each result represents a simulated time span of 48 hrs over that area. Also, I understand that each result is returned for a subsequent simulated 48 hrs repeatedly until a total of 1 years worth of data simulated for that 250 sq K unit has accmulated.
Therefore, the area of study should be divided by each tile's area to discover the number of tiles that would represent sub saharan africa. (15185000/250=60740 tiles)
We are crunching about 1600 units/day. At that rate, it will take 38 days to process each tile in the set once. (60740/1600)
The work on each tile represents 48 hrs. There are 182.5 such periods in a year. Currentlty therefore it will take 182.5 X 38 days or 6935 days or 19 years to complete the project.
This seems impractical.
Perhaps the initail paucity of task release is related to the construction of the physical atributes represented in each tile. That will ease in the re-iteration phase because they shouldn't change.
It will be interesting to see how the project progreses. It would also be interesting to know the are under consideration.
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hchc
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Re: How long will this take?

sptrog1 said:
I understand that each task that we crunch represents 250 sq K

I've been wondering about this myself. 250 km² is about 16x16 km. Where did you find this info by the way?

All I could find was from the ARP1 Beta test from May 2019:
armstrdj said:
Yes that is correct each work unit is a specific geographic region. We are using nesting in WRF with three domains for each work unit. For the beta the outermost domain of each run is a 9 km by 9 km square. The two inner domains are 3 km x 3 km and 1 km x 1 km each.]


Interesting either way. If we know the size of each task's "grid square," we'll know how many tasks per generation exist (000, 001, 002 ... 182).
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[Edit 2 times, last edit by hchc at Nov 11, 2019 3:34:56 AM]
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Re: How long will this take?

Half of Africa, say below Sahara, is about 185,000 jobs at a grid of 9x9. Even at 250km2 its 60,000 just for generation 000_0 x quorum 2. At 1700 / 2 = 850 tasks validated a day, nah, there must be a highly refined scope of areas being simulated to get through the full year simulation, limited to those that have sparse rain, not bone dry.
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sptrog1
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Re: How long will this take?

In reality 250 sq K is my guess. I believe a good one based on conversations I have had with university types in atmospheric studies . It is an area often used in modeling over land. Perhaps our tasks break these down into smaller units for greater resolution.
We are encouraged to use this forum to pose questions for the researchers and WCG staff and I am doing so. Either of these or both organizations should know the total of area units under consideration. They might tell us. If the area is further limited than "sub saharan Africa", they might tell us the location.
I thought that that each result reported in project statistics was final result and not each "valid" used to determine validity. Perhaps WCG could clear up that question also.
The implied question is "Why 1700 results per day and how much area does that represent?"
In my experience with bottles, all of the necks have been at the top,
It could be that this is the rate at which the researchers can provide the fodder for the tasks and that the WCG staff is expeditiously releasing same.
Or that the WCG staff doleing them out in such a fashion as to let everyone have a piece and keeping the number small so as not to overload the system in the initial phase. Let's not bust the bottle used in the above illustration.
If the limits are indeed 1700/day, it seems unprofitable to agitate for more. However, 19 years seems a long time to wait for a vision into climate change let alone delaying a decision as to whether to plant and where.
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: How long will this take?

250 km² is 50x50 km.

You better go back and check your arithmetic. 250 km^2 is about 15.8 km. on a side.
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hchc
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Re: How long will this take?

Thanks. Edited my post.
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sptrog1
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Re: How long will this take?

My sources told me 50kX50k. I made a typo. My calculation now comes to 693.5 days. Sorry for the concern expressed.
It would still be nice to get the answers requested.
The statement about bottles is still valid but not applicable.
Thoroughly embarrassed I shall bow out.
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: How long will this take?

Thoroughly embarrassed I shall bow out.

Please don't be embarrassed and please don't bow out. Typo can happen to anyone.
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giba
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Re: How long will this take?

I think that you show na useful way to think more deep inthis Project, perhaps others too, with calculation metodology to discover the real numbers for África Rainfall.
The most of crunchers in WCG never take time to think about this kind of details for any Project so it demonstrate that you are seriously involved and in my opinion have my support to continue speculate... so with the final words the techs or scientists teams to provide the reality about the estimatives mentioned in this thread ! wink biggrin nerd hugs applause idea rose good luck peace coffee
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Sgt.Joe
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Re: How long will this take?

Just introduced is the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (IBM GRAF). The web site is here. The caption under one of the pictures lists a 3km resolution. Now I don't think this is the resolution which is being done by this project, but it does show just how small an area they are targeting with their new forecasting tool. Interesting stuff.
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