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Category: Community
Forum: Chat Room
Thread: ECD topic |
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Thread Status: Active Total posts in this thread: 291
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OldChap
Veteran Cruncher UK Joined: Jun 5, 2009 Post Count: 978 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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Came to see the latest chart and found HUUUGE change. Really ??
----------------------------------------I thought I was looking at estimated completion date of project.... now I wonder if I am looking at estimated completion date for your target badge ? OET 642 days 51% complete then 657 days (15 days later) it is 74% complete and the ECD moved about a year A little clarification please KLiK  |
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cjslman
Master Cruncher Mexico Joined: Nov 23, 2004 Post Count: 2082 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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KLiK is using the percentages from the research page and applying a rule of three to get the ECD. The percentages on the research page is what the WCG techs are aware of that is coming down the pike, but the project's scientists might have more experiments that the the WCG techs are not aware of. So it might be that OET shows 75% completion today and tomorrow it could be 60% (more experiments/WUs were added). As for the other way around (going from a lower % to a higher % in a short time), not sure why that happens (it could be that the project's scientists eliminated some experiments or it was just that more people crunched more on that particular project).
----------------------------------------CJSL World Community Grid: the final frontier. These are the adventures of the grid WCG. Its never-ending mission: to explore strange new methods, to seek out new cures and new solutions, to boldly crunch where no man has crunched before. |
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OldChap
Veteran Cruncher UK Joined: Jun 5, 2009 Post Count: 978 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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OK thanks. Must be a thing the scientists have done then
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KLiK
Master Cruncher Croatia Joined: Nov 13, 2006 Post Count: 3108 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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OK thanks. Must be a thing the scientists have done then actually, the best explanation we got from techs & scientist is: - last month average work per WUs compared to job left at hand. some of us argued about that "comparison" but it still remains...suggestion have been made to calculate the "average work per WUs from the beginning of the project"...but it has not been implemented! so, as soon as we come to some short WUs & have quicker returns, we might have jumps like that in %...check the topics about OET, which had ECD on Research page put in July, but it's still going!  NOTICE: Please use these calculations not as a DATE per se...but as a estimated month of completion! Also, the best way to keep a track reports it's going to be 2 issues monthly...on 01st & 15th of every month. p.s. Have made another table for next prognosis...which will not show my badges in next reports! Just wait for a 01.10. to post it...  |
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Col323
Senior Cruncher Joined: Nov 4, 2008 Post Count: 372 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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This is certainly a fun discussion which fuels my participation in WCG. (Getting research done!)
Quick question about the projects with a 2017 ECD. Are you factoring in the potential CPU power which will no longer be crunching MCM and UGM? Or is this based upon a project's current run rate and estimated work? (So, let's say MCM actually ends on 10.10. Will your 15.10 update show all other projects with a nearer ECD?) Thanks for posting these, and I look forward to the 01.10 update! |
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SekeRob
Master Cruncher Joined: Jan 7, 2013 Post Count: 2741 Status: Offline |
Shouldn't this topic be moved to the Chat Room. It has nothing to do with the Website. from post 2 in this thread |
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KLiK
Master Cruncher Croatia Joined: Nov 13, 2006 Post Count: 3108 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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This is certainly a fun discussion which fuels my participation in WCG. (Getting research done!) Quick question about the projects with a 2017 ECD. Are you factoring in the potential CPU power which will no longer be crunching MCM and UGM? Or is this based upon a project's current run rate and estimated work? (So, let's say MCM actually ends on 10.10. Will your 15.10 update show all other projects with a nearer ECD?) Thanks for posting these, and I look forward to the 01.10 update! Let me answer your questions...NO, the factors are not included, until the end of project has been met! Will think about how to implement those in calculations...but not sure if it will be that easy... So, YES, a lot will change with MCM & UGM finishing soon...that's why I've stated before to give those ECD as a monthly possibility of ending...why? In a way if you do think you'll end up to 5y Diamond for some project about the time of ECD, you still have time between now & ECD to do something about it...to get an Android which will give you 3-4d average for OET / OZ on it...or to get a computer with more cores / threads, which will give you more days to finish up on time! One more time, on every estimate no Moore law is given into account...so even though the processor calc strength is going up / doubling (or it used to, until later processors), WCG has seen an increase of 5-10% growth in calculation speed per year...so let's say it's pessimistic 20% growth, so any project with later date can be calculated down by those 20% speed up...if you want, those can be implemented in next reports also! |
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ErikaT
Former World Community Grid Admin USA Joined: Apr 27, 2009 Post Count: 912 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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Hello all,
This thread has been moved to the Chat Room forum. Thanks, ErikaT |
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KLiK
Master Cruncher Croatia Joined: Nov 13, 2006 Post Count: 3108 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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thx, Erika
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KLiK
Master Cruncher Croatia Joined: Nov 13, 2006 Post Count: 3108 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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So, even though it's not 1st...some people asked for a next ECD, considering new batches added in MCM project & tomorrow is a weekend, so personally wanted to use some FREE time...anyway, here is it:
---------------------------------------- Some comments compared to last ECD: - OZ is confirmed to be in mid-Apr 2017 - HSTB has some lowering % of work done...probably it's a slow-down...more could we know, if suggestion made (here: https://secure.worldcommunitygrid.org/forums/wcg/viewthread_thread,39503 ) is implemented by techs & admins...wouldn't it be nice to have only one topic where all weights of all the projects on WCG is disclosed? - FAH2 is confirmed to be in Jul 2017 (take that as summer-time), still too early to tell! - OET is confirmed in May 2017, somewhere on the beginning...though we were warned that last WUs will be "heavy ones"! So we might have more time in the end...  - UGM still in Oct 2016...don't take this date for granted, 'cause % is done without decimals (round number)! & many more people will try to get some badges in last days of the project...use SekeRob estimate for a ECD here: https://secure.worldcommunitygrid.org/forums/wcg/viewpostinthread?post=531672 - MCM, the BIG change that came this week...down 15% gets us from less than 10d finishing (or 7d, by Sgt.Joe more elaborate calcs) to ECD in beginning of May 2017! So race is ON...make your new goals & get those badges changed, by doing GOOD! |
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