OK, I thought about it, but there are a lot of variables to consider. If the average WU size stays about 5 hours and if MCM1 captures 60% of the crunching power now devoted to FAAH and if FAAH ends as scheduled on June 4 and then tails off over the next two weeks, the additional crunching power should move the end date up to the last week in August to the first week in September. There are a lot of "if's" here so this can hardly be classified as even the wildest speculation. Pure alchemy at best.

Cheers

There is one big issue with those assumptions.

The scope of MCM Phase 1 has changed. Originally it was to be 17,500 WU sets that covered, lung, prostate, breast and one other cancer. We are still on the lung portion and they are now taking what was previously returned to generate new more focused WU sets. See: http://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/about_us/viewNewsArticle.do?articleId=419

So we don't even know about the other three cancers that were to be part of the original project. So we could go way beyond the original 17500 sets planned.

So, with many unknowns, we don't even know what percentage complete we are done and thus cannot even determine when the project might end. If the other three cancers are still planned, then even an increase in crunchers on this project may not end this project by the current estimated end date.

In the next week or so I'll be dropping out of this project and moving over to UGM. After around 280,000 WU's and 100 years, I'll let others get the badges they want on MCM1. I'll aim for a 100 year badge on UGM.

But it has to change or they are going to remove the other three forms of cancer from the project. The scientists planned on 17,500 that covered four forms of cancer. They have now taken the initial results of the first form (lung cancer) and are using those results to generate new batches. Let's say that originally (no one ever said how many batches were for lung cancer) it was 13,500, which leaves 4,000 batches for the other three forms. Now that they are using previous results to generate new batches:
1) What is the likelihood that there will be exactly 4,000?
2) That the other three forms won't be run?

If they decide to run the other three forms of cancer, then they will be higher than 17,500 batches. If they don't, they could be lower, or they could be higher.

So the real question is, are the other three forms of cancer going to be crunched?

Glad the science moved into a O/I mode... interpret the output and refine new input. 'If' the other 3 targets are computed [asked before what would happen to those], then the learned from the first target will hopefully allow to zoom in much quicker. Clearly though with "For the time being the number of batches is going to remain the same as the original estimate.", progress computing will have to remain on seventeen.five, -with- an open end question mark.

Looking at the Dashboard, it shows that we are crunching .19% of the remaining MCM WU per day. If you take the remaining 24.01% left, divide that by the .19 and then move the remaining 16% of total share from FA@H to MCM, you get 11 Sept 15 as the end date. The great thing about statistics: You can make them say anything.

The bigger question is what is going to happen to the 80.4% of the total power of WCG when there are no longer any Normal priority projects left? Without a new NORMAL project by then, it will be a cluster and we could go from 1.5M WU per day to 250K. and then again....not.

possibly a real worry since we have not been informed of any new projects in the pipeline.

Conjecture, Speculation, Assumption, Estimation, Irritation; the driving forces behind the WCG Forums