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Sgt.Joe
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For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

Since it was brought up in the thread (https://secure.worldcommunitygrid.org/forums/wcg/viewthread_thread,35952) about how much work the Ripple team is doing (which is a lot) I thought I would go through a little exercise to help indicate the potential size of the MCM1 project.
The batch numbers in the project are 7 digits long which indicates the possibility of 9,999,999 batches each of which appears to have 9,999 work units per batch, currently each with a quorum of 2. This gives us 9,999,999 times 9999 times 2 which equals 199,979,980,002 possible work units to be crunched under their numbering scheme. Given our current average of 4:19:01 per work unit(as of the 12:00 update) which equals 15541 seconds it would take 199,979,980,002 times 15541 seconds or 3,107,888,869,211,080 seconds to complete all the work units. This amounts to 98,550,510 years of crunch time. The highest number of years for this project which we have completed so far is 282. Round up to 300 years per day for ease of division. At this rate it would take about 328,500 years to complete this project. As this is a totally unreachable number by today's standards I am quite sure the project researchers are not contemplating anything near this number of work units.
If they are contemplating a five year project I am guessing the potential number of work units to be in the neighborhood of about 500,000,000 with a quorum of 2 gives 1,000,000,000 total work units to crunch. At 500,000 per day this would take a little over 5 years. And we have not yet reached that level.
I have made a number of assumptions here, some of which may not turn out to be true as the project progresses. Others should feel free to throw their two cents worth in. At any rate, these are the numbers which lead me to believe we are not in any danger of running out of work.
Cheers
Edit: added link
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Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers*
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sgt.Joe at Dec 16, 2013 2:57:22 AM]
[Dec 16, 2013 2:39:31 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
gb009761
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Re: For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

Then, of course, add in all the other work (CEP2, FA@H - both flavours, potentially more HFCC & SN2S, along with all the new projects that will, in time, come along), means that WCG will require the resources of us crunchers for a very long time.

So, crunch on biggrin
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[Dec 16, 2013 6:52:25 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
cjslman
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Re: For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

Thanks, interesting data. Yup... there seems to be nothing (that anybody can see at the moment) to worry about. We have (and will have) plenty of WUs to crunch.

CJSL

Crunching for a brighter future...
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I follow the Gimli philosophy: "Keep breathing. That's the key. Breathe."
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Former Member
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Re: For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

The techs were asked about the MCM batches [twice], given the 9,999,999 times 10,000 times 2 copies possible. Reply: We do 'Njot' know, so plugged another tech figure into the dashboard 'several years'. That is the likely case, even if a brute force GPGPU version were launched. nerd

FA@H earlier this year got a theoretical 5 year extension under the 'HIVE' grant program.

And then there's WCG that makes their multi-years 'business' plan. We'll be here me thinketh till the end of the decade.
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[Edit 2 times, last edit by Former Member at Dec 16, 2013 1:39:48 PM]
[Dec 16, 2013 1:37:23 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Former Member
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Re: For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

P.S., historically there's most always been a spare zero in compound/batch numbering i.e. 'worst' case, it could all be 999,999 batches. We're racing towards batch 700 [for those that are never at ease ;>]
[Dec 16, 2013 1:46:02 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
BladeD
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Re: For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

Just need enough in the queue...for the Holidays! wink
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[Dec 17, 2013 5:11:17 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
ryan222h
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Re: For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

Great info, Joe. Obviously there are a lot of factors involved but I always trust your analysis.

I think people might just want to see more diversification of projects, in case one or two projects has a pause or issues for whatever reason.

4-5 concurrent projects seems like a good ideal number for diversification and to provide choice for those crunching. I'm not personally concerned with the amount of work to be done.
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[Dec 17, 2013 9:22:19 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
alged
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Re: For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

Thks Sgt Joe for these reassuring statistics-if ever we need to be conforted-
I dont believe at all in a "ripple tsunami " over WCG
It appears that crunchers concerned by specifics illnesses will have always this possibilty to contribute and maintain a link to the scientific
community.
Lets go on the good work.
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[Dec 17, 2013 9:54:37 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Former Member
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Re: For Those Who Worry About the Amount of Work

as a rippler I seriously doubt my 3-4 jobs a day will run WCG lulz
[Dec 18, 2013 1:10:57 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
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