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rbotterb
Senior Cruncher United States Joined: Jul 21, 2005 Post Count: 401 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
SekeRob, first thank you for your WCG Charts & Progress information. It does help those of us tracking our progress toward badges to have a decent estimate on how long a project is likely to stay around before they finish.
In you most recent calculations, I'm wondering if the DSFL numbers are correct. You're showing DSFL as 71.92% complete, and it is advancing .11% per day, and based on the 7 day average, you're calculating DSFL has 139 days left. But if I do a basic back of the envelope calculation, I would get (100%-71.92%)/.11% per day = 255 Days Left, which is nearly double your 139 day result. All the other projects have days left that seem to be pretty much as I would expect (subject to some rounding issues), but DSFL seems to be out of line here. Am I missing something???? |
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
Noticed same thing some days ago... think something is lagging whilst DSFL has accelerated [surely you noticed the rapid decline of days remaining... pre noon update it's showing 129 days on the sheet, you can't get to see
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
Well, pull up your socks, recalibrating to 22 March Update, but per Fig.2 footnote further updated to April 10 we were at 71%, which is when we had done 29.5K years [ http://pecet-colombia.org/worldcommunitygrid/...&Itemid=6&lang=en ]. Taking this as new offset point, we're at about 217 days regular supply, with a present pace of about .12%-.13%. That's a bit longer than the August conclusion I'd read somewhere before, but faster than the 0.11% it showed before on the dashboard. Horse manure happens ;>)
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gb009761
Master Cruncher Scotland Joined: Apr 6, 2005 Post Count: 2982 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Thankyou rbotterb & SekeRob for finding/fixing this slight miscalculation.
----------------------------------------Although I know that all the project scientists want their work completed ASAP, on a personal level, this recalibration will give me a little more breathing space so as to reach the goals I've set myself (Emerald in all possible projects - something which was looking as though it'd be another tight squeeze with my available resources). All we're wanting now, is for a new project (or two), to come in and mess my calculations up a bit ![]() ![]() |
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
Per (Chief) Admin, jhindo, they will be
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widdershins
Veteran Cruncher Scotland Joined: Apr 30, 2007 Post Count: 674 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
EEK! Not too soon with the new projets though (I hope). Still trying to get DSFL and GOFAM to 5 years before they finish. I'll need about 3 months to get them both there.
You used to have an special chart with project start and predicted end dates. I don't suppose you could do something similar for future project start and end dates? ![]() |
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Sgt.Joe
Ace Cruncher USA Joined: Jul 4, 2006 Post Count: 7668 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Trying to predict start and end dates is fraught with problems. Some have to do with an unknown size of the data set with which you are working, the amount of time which the techs allow(?) for each project, the ability of the scientists to adequately deal with the data which is returned, etc. An example ids DSFL which had an ambitious goal of 5300 trials. The initial estimate for completion of the project using that many was, if I remember correctly, around 25 years at the rate it was being processed. Thus the project was scaled back to 530.
----------------------------------------It is also dependent on other factors such as the change in computing power, number of participants, additions of new data, changing programming techniques, GPU availability, etc. Once the scope of the project is defined along with a number of these other variables, then an estimate can be formulated. But this estimate is only as good as the reliability of the underlying factors in making the estimate. As any of these factors change over time, the estimates will have to be revised. I applaud Sekerob for his ability to be as accurate as he is with limited information. Cheers
Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers* |
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rbotterb
Senior Cruncher United States Joined: Jul 21, 2005 Post Count: 401 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
SekeRob, good to know I wasn't just seeing things and there was a 'typo' in your chart numbers. I'm using your chart every couple days to see how I'm doing in my quest for my tiny team to get to an Emerald badge for GFAM, so thanks again for your number crunching - your doing everyone a great service!
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
Now who wants to put salt in old festering wounds ;? No, the GANTT is permanent history in the public domain [knock yourself out and make one]. Estimated end dates are actually different to the now()+ N days value as these only try to estimate how many days of work supply, be it volume if there is a close estimation, or a extrapolated target end date if that not being available... neither did e.g. [absolutely] not work for DDDT-2, nor for CFCW or HFCC. The end dates were/are in cases way further out then there was/is regular supply and some just had too many issues with grasping that, so it is what it is and will remain so.
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
BTW, lots of [good] smileys to read with previous post... 'Can't touch this ' (MC Hammer, at Arsenio Hall).
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